2015 Texas Aggie Football Preview - The Wrap Up

So after all that, what does it mean?

Generally, it means a very young team from last year comes in with things to learn and the talent and ability to grow, although it seems the SEC West is only getting tougher by the year.

And yet, that is what we signed up for, wasn't it? When we left the Big 12, it was because we wanted to raise our game, and this is the year. This is the year that we really get to dig our hands into being fully SEC. True, there probably are a handful of players on the roster who were originally recruited to play in the Big 12, but the vast majority of the roster are here because they wanted to play for Kevin Sumlin and the Aggies in the SEC.

With the new digs, its almost as if this is the first full year in the SEC with the team having all its assets organized and together. Certainly we finally have an SEC level defensive coordinator. And we also have three years of experience to show that yes, we absolutely can make noise in this conference. There are some rather large skins on the wall, including Alabama ('12), Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl), Auburn ('14), South Carolina ('14), along with some memorable games - some wins (Ole Miss in '12 and '13) and some losses (Auburn and Alabama in '13).

Yessir, you know you better bring it when you play the Aggies in the SEC.

Unfortunately, there have been enough losses - looking at you, LSU and Missouri, as well as that loss to Alabama last year - that clearly, the Aggies have work to do.

Sumlin Has The Pieces

Yet this is the exciting part. This is where you can look at Kevin Sumlin and say, "You have what you need. You do not lack for anything - not players, not coaches, not facilities. Go forth and destroy." And say it with the confidence that it is entirely possible.

The reality, though, is that we know that is the potential of the team. Now also begins the hard work of maximizing it. In fact, Sumlin and his staff have been working to maximize it since 2012 - they just got thrown a curve ball in the shape of Johnny Football, who was a magic elixir that gave all of college football a taste of what Aggie Football can be.

Last year we saw that the elixir helped mask some real holes, yet the Aggies revealed that the heart that beats at the center of this team is just as strong without Mr. Manziel. Certainly South Carolina and Auburn will not be taking TAMU lightly any time soon.

The Breakdown Begins

So let's get down to specifics. After looking at all the pieces, I think we know for a fact that the offense will be at least as good as it was in the back half of 2014, and that should be good enough to win five games as is. All of the non-conference games but Arizona State, as well as the Vanderbilt game and, in this writer's opinion, the home game against a weaker Mississippi State team.

To equal 2014, which ought to be the minimum for this team, we need to find two more regular season wins. Enter John Chavis. With a simplified, and better coached defense, that side of the ball should make enough of an improvement that beating South Carolina should be doable. That gets us to six. How many more?

The next tier of games, in our opinion, include Arkansas and Arizona State. With the changes to the scheme, the Sun Devils may be surprised by what a Chavis-led Aggie defense can do. And if Chavis can do something really special, like get this team to be able to stop the run, it is also possible that a win against Arkansas can be had.

The Key To The Season

But the ceiling of this team will be defined by David Christensen. His work with the offensive line and the running game is the difference between Texas A&M being in the middle of the pack in the SEC West and having a shot to take down the big boys in the group - Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss and LSU. And while LSU and Ole Miss may or may not deserve to be in that group after their tailspins at the end of last season, both games are on the road. And to win those game, this team is going to need to be able to do things it has not done against LSU in the past - run the ball traditionally.

Frankly, I think both Chavis and Christensen will have an impact this season - a noticeable one that will show that this coaching staff, with these players and these facilities, in front of these fans, are going to be a force to be dealt with. I think it is a coin flip whether they beat the Sun Devils or not, but I think they get wins against the original five mentioned above and South Carolina.

Its All About The Razorbacks

And I really think this season comes down to the Arkansas game. If this team is ready to win that game that early in the season, they will continue to improve enough that another win or two is very possible, and even nine or ten wins is possible. Lose that game, and I think this team could struggle to get that seventh win.

Make no mistake, the win against Arkansas last year was an aberration. Play them again later in the year and that is almost certainly a loss. And while they are losing some on defense, they are not losing much on offense and that offense can destroy teams.

It is going to take Chavis really getting the Aggies able to stop the run, and Spav being able to really pressure the weaknesses of the defense for us to beat the Razorbacks in 2015. But both of those things are very possible, especially if Christensen does good work with the offensive line and the running game.

Something Special Is Possible

Is magic in a bottle possible again? Absolutely. Chavis has some real athletes to work with, and if enough of them are tired of being talked about as they have been for the past few years, and he can get them in a scheme that plays to their strengths in ways that opponents cannot adjust for in time, all of a sudden only the Auburn and Alabama matches seem a bridge too far.

Or what if either Murray or Allen really turn it on? Allen will be in his second season and ought to have the confidence of the wide receiver corps. And if that unit can get back to being great - i.e., no drops at bad times, block well for the running game, everyone playing on every down - then he alone could be amazing. Or what if Kyler is another Johnny Football, especially in the ability to get that third down when everything falls apart?

Or even if you just have the emergence of a real running game that opponents have to respect, on top of Sumlin's air raid offense?

The potential is definitely there. But in a fit of honesty, I have to admit it does not seem very likely - this year. But mark this down - in 2017 the Aggies will once again have an advantage in home games like they do this year, and it will be Chavis' third year with the team, and he will have helped recruit defensive players for three years. Magic will very likely happen - just probably not this year.

Bottom Line

So bottom line? I think they lose to the Sun Devils but beat Arkansas, as well as the other non-conference games and South Carolina, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. I also think they get one or two more. Without knowing more about how Alabama will shake out (they have a LOT of new faces to get ready to play), or how Auburn's changes will work, or what the loss to TCU did to Ole Miss, it is tough to pick which one they nick. But they will, and I think there is a chance they finally beat LSU. Yes, its on the road. Yes, one of their quarterbacks might actually learn how to play. But I am sure Chavis will feel pressure to have his defense ready to win this one for him, and unless the Bayou Tigers are having the season of their lives, the Aggies will find a way to win in Death Valley.

Optimistic? Maybe. But it all comes down to the fact that this team has had the potential to be great from Day One of Sumlin's tenure, and the coaching changes he made just scream improvement, and this team was not as bad as the record indicated last year. A play or two here or there and we beat LSU. Get ahead of the Kenny Hill issues and maybe the Mississippi State game is a victory. The point is, though, that other than the Alabama match, this team was good last year. And now you add in the best defensive coordinator in the SEC and a head-coach level offensive line coach? That has got to have an effect, and it is not as if this team doesn't have talent.

So there you have it. The key game is Arkansas, and if they win that game, look for this team to do something good this year as the foundation for something really special in the years to come.

Texas Aggie Football - 2015 Preview - The Schedule

Now that we have gone through the people who will be doing the work, so let's talk schedule.

September 5 v. Arizona State - NRG Stadium (Houston)

We start off with a big challenge, as the Sun Devils have a quality defense and an explosive offense, although they have a lot of changes they have to make on that side of the ball. But make no mistake, this team is going to cause problems in the Pac-12 and that is not an easy thing to do. Yes it is in Texas and the crowd should be pro-A&M, but for all the new things this defense will have to do, it is not going to be easy.

What will be interesting to see is how much of last year's opener carries over. Against South Carolina last year, Sumlin had his team sharp and ready to go from the first minute. Physically, mentally, schematically - didn't matter. The Aggies were more prepared. Some of that clearly was on Spurrier but what if Sumlin and his staff just does a better job of getting ready for a big opener?

Editor's note - after writing this article, I read about an interview the Arizona State coach, Todd Graham, gave Paul Finebaum wherein he talked about how excited his team was to play the game, and how they studied the A&M-South Carolina match from last year and noted how much more prepared the Aggies were.... So I don't think we will see a repeat of last year's disparity between our team and our opponent in terms of preparedness...

Here is a place where Christensen and Chavis could give us an early look at how much of an effect they can make. Both coaches have really important areas of impact, and frankly, both are necessary for the team to improve on last season. What a fantastic test to start the year, then see what we have and get to work preparing for the SEC.

September 12 v. Ball State - New Kyle Field Opener

There ought to be enough quality here that it won't be a blood bath, but it should be a comfortable win and a good run out to make sure that the staff are working on any problem areas that developed from the Arizona State match.

September 19 v. Nevada - Kyle Field

Similar to Ball State, with the added bonus of a high octane offense. The thing of it is this - the following week is against Arkansas, so anything of concern had better be addressed in these two games because after that, its only Big Boy Football.

So hopefully we don't have what we had last year - where the games after the Carolina drubbing were not taken seriously enough, and while the scores looked pretty, the actual play was not. I remember having concerns about things not being sharp in those games - that can't happen again, not with the SEC West being what it looks like it will be in 2015, which is arguably the toughest division college football has ever seen.

September 26 v. Arkansas - AT&T Stadium (Arlington)

Here we go, ladies and gentlemen. The gauntlet begins in Arlington and an early barometer on where the Aggies stand. The form the Razorbacks had at the end of last year was scary good. We may joke with Longhorns that they played a team worse than us in their bowl game, but deep down, I don't think many teams had any interest in playing Bielema's group.

Their defense may (or may not) take a step back, but their running game will continue to be a monster. Here is where Chavis needs to find a way to do something. More to the point, here is where we find out how successful he has been at finding better ways for our athletes to succeed.

Their passing offense may take a step forward, but their wide receivers will have to step up for that to happen. Arkansas' quarterback play has not been the issue - Allen's targets have been, and a new offensive coordinator can only do so much.

They come into the match after having hosted Texas Tech, so we can't really expect much of a challenge there.

Frankly, I think this is the barometer of the season. Win this and I think you see the Aggies with a shot at getting to 9-10 wins. Lose and it might be a fight to have a winning record.

October 3 v. Mississippi State - Kyle Field

Barring a confidence crushing result against Arkansas (like, a big loss where the boys simply aren't competitive), this should be a win. State has simply lost way too much and Dak can only do so much on his own. Their losses on the lines and at running back, from a senior-laden team, added to the confidence the Aggies should have from the season and from playing at home, along with the memories of last season, and I think Sumlin's group will be very hungry to make a statement.

Surely, anything can happen, but there are too many tangibles and intangibles in this one. That being said, a loss here is a really bad sign. The only advantage to a loss in this game is the next week is a bye so things that need a little time to be fixed can be addressed - or at least worked on.

October 17 v. Alabama - Kyle Field

There are the puzzle pieces of a fantastic rivalry here, what with the history between the schools and the first two SEC installments of this game, but last year was the 59-0 drubbing and Texas A&M has to prove they can consistently show up in this tilt.

Unlike last year, where these teams met after the Crimson Tide had a bye whereas A&M had played Arkansas and Mississippi State before the game, this year it is our Aggies who come in off a bye. That means the team can really focus on Arkansas and State without having to focus immediately on Alabama right away.

In fact, it is the Crimson Tide who will have played at Georgia and then against Arkansas before traveling to Texas to play. Now this isn't the same as playing them after they played LSU as it happened in 2012, but that is a tougher stretch than the Aggies have, without a bye to boot.

And while Alabama is still Alabama, they have a LOT of changes to work through. It is not entirely clear if they will be "THAT" Alabama, at least not this season. Although it could very well be. We just don't know. Suffice to say, there is some variability and vulnerability to be taken advantage of. The question is whether the Aggies can put themselves in position to take advantage of it.

But the bottom line is they were better last year, and the team fell apart in that game, resulting in a historic loss. How does the team respond? Surely, the team will play better - at home, hungry to show last year was a fluke for various reasons, with (theoretically) better coaches. But will it be enough?

October 24 at Ole Miss

This has been a fantastic game between the teams, although like the Alabama match, not as much last year. But if the Arkansas game was our early barometer, this is the game that decides our season. A team that can win over Arkansas and Ole Miss probably also beats State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt. That alone turns around the conference record from 3-5 to 5-3, even if they don't steal one from Bama, Auburn or LSU.

But it will not be easy. Clearly, the Ole Miss defense is no joke, and it will probably not take a step back next year. The question for Mississippi is whether they can groom a new quarterback in time. They could be a bit beat up by the time these teams meet as they will have gone too Alabama and Florida, although they play at Memphis the week before this game. Not exactly playing at an Alabama level, so odds are they will not be as roughed up.

I do not expect a win here - on the road, against a defense that showed it could handle our offense last year, its a big ask. But it is another "let's see how much improvement Christensen and Chavis have made" game.

October 31 v. South Carolina - Kyle Field

Maybe I am wrong to think this, but I have not seen or heard anything that makes me think that the Gamecocks will have improved enough to win a game at Kyle Field that they so handily lost last year. Granted, they are very unpredictable, and the Aggies are still very young, so an upset is possible.

The one thing that makes me nervous about this game is South Carolina will be coming into the game off a bye, and certainly want to do something about the embarrassment of last year's opener. But if the coaching staff can keep the guys on an even keel and take this game seriously, then this is a game our boys should win.

November 7 v. Auburn - Kyle Field

The War Eagle Tigers will be coming into this match with a rather large chip on their shoulder. Very large. And from all indications, they have a more talented team (if nothing else, less holes to fill) and also upgraded at the DC spot. It is going to take something really special to get the win in this game. To me, this is the game that shows how close we are to getting back to being a top tier SEC team. Again, State should be a win. Same for Carolina and Vanderbilt. Arkansas and Ole Miss above them. How close Ole Miss is to the top tier is unclear at this point. But the class of the SEC West has been and remains Alabama and Auburn. (I have no clear idea what to make of LSU, other than the game is in Louisiana and they still have most of the pieces of a team that won in College Station last year.)

If A&M can improve enough to win this match - and not lay an egg in other matches at levels below this one, this could very well be the year that the Aggies win something. And you have to admit, the raw pieces and the coaching staff are there to get it done. What is less clear is if it actually does happen, and if it does, when? Does it happen this year, or next? Frankly, I have my sights set on 2017 as that will be another year where the Aggies have a lot of home games, and a lot of these uber talented kids will be Juniors and Seniors. But that same ability is on staff and in the locker room right now.

Auburn comes into this game off a home game against Ole Miss. Depending on how good they are, that might be a distraction. If nothing else, it will probably not be an easy game. Odds are the Aggies come into the game off an easier matchup.

If it is possible, Auburn comes in with a better quarterback than last year, although the running back position will probably take another (very) small step back. Overall, they will be more pass oriented, in all likelihood, which may or may not be a good thing. The good thing from an A&M perspective is we are on the back half of the season, so players will be well versed in their jobs and younger players should be playing less young.

I am just not sure it will be enough.

November 14 v. Western Carolina - Kyle Field

The "breather" game before finishing the schedule. Ideally, this is where fringe players start so we can rest anyone injured or worn down. Hopefully this is not another "reset" game like Louisiana Monroe was last season...

November 21 at Vanderbilt

The one SEC game that should be a no-brainer, at least for Texas A&M. Sumlin's squad should be able to handle up on their business with this game, especially with the Western Carolina match the week before.

The Commodores will come into the game after having hosted Kentucky the week before. There is no way to tell at this point how much of a challenge that game might present, but certainly it ought to be more of a challenge for Vandy than Western Carolina is for A&M.

Unless the youth takes Vanderbilt for granted, this should be a win.

November 28 at LSU

No idea what to put here. Does the Bayou Tigers get their offensive act together? Or are they mostly defense once again?

I can say this - do NOT assume that since Chavis left their defense is going to take a step back. Not with Kevin Steele, who is familiar with both the SEC West and the LSU defense, and Ed Orgeron on staff. Just like their recruiting, this defense is going to pick up right where they left off, most likely.

But can Chavis help Sumlin figure out how to beat his old defense? Very possibly. But I wouldn't count on it. No, this is a game where Chavis needs to have improved the A&M defense to the point where, if LSU remains anemic on offense, our defense can make them pay for it.

But at this point in the season, so many things will have changed and you will see two squads at the end of this 2015 regular season journey, and who knows which side will have grown the most.

I can also say this - it is in Death Valley, so if the Aggies can pull off a victory, it will be quite an achievement.

The good news on the scheduling front is LSU plays at Ole Miss the week before this game, so no rest for them. In fact, this is another game where the Aggies come in off a better/easier challenge than their opponent. As we saw last year, when that pattern was on the other foot, it makes a difference.

There are just so many variables in this game it is hard to say how it will play out.

Bowl Game - ?

There should be no doubt this team has at least a 6-6 record and gets into a bowl game. And once there, I expect Sumlin and his staff to have the team ready to go to win that game, but it would be a fool's errand to guess who it would be and how they would fare.

But the bottom line is the Aggies should go bowling, and the staff will make sure that the team grows as much as possible from the experience.

So there you have it - game by game, a breakdown of the schedule. Look for our wrap up tomorrow where we give our predictions for the season.

Aggie 2015 Preview - The Offense and Special Teams

So now that we have discussed the defensive side of the ball, let's talk about the Offense and also touch on Special Teams.

Offensive Units

Everyone is talking about Chavis and the impact it will have on the defense, but frankly, the bigger impact might be on the other side of the ball. Christensen has been brought in to address the issues in the offensive line and the running game, and that could very well be a major change. And with such a young wide receiver corps – especially one that showed such youth last year, along with the importance of the wide receivers to the offensive plan – the addition of Moorehead could also have a big impact.

So in that light, it could very well be that the offense as a whole could have a major overhaul as well.

The exciting thing is at times, the offense was still very explosive last year (waives to Steve Spurrier and Gus Malzahn), so if they can be more consistent and more effective, that alone could very well be the difference between beating the likes of Arkansas and Ole Miss.

Offensive Line

Personally, I was very frustrated with the way this unit fell apart at times last year. From the outside, it appeared that the line should have been a strength, but starting with the Arkansas game, it seemed more and more teams found ways to upset the flow of this group. To a degree, the grind of that set – playing quality team after quality team, each coming off a bye – probably affected things. But there still were issues that this unit had not faced in prior years.

This, to me, is the most important thing to fix. Everything in an offense starts with the line, and if this unit can get back to being the best in the SEC, it will open up opportunities for both the passing and running games to be more effective.

Running Game

With Tra Carson returning and Christensen’s involvement in the offensive line and play calling, this is a huge potential area of improvement. There were key times, especially against South Carolina, that you could see the power and danger of the Aggie running game. The trick is finding places to make sure it is used well, and Christensen ought to be able to do that. This, added to the involvement in the line, is why I think the Christensen hire is as important as the Chavis hire.

Passing Game – Quarterbacks

Kyle Allen is a good place to start, even though he is only a sophomore. The turmoil around Kenny Hill is gone and he had not only the spring but now time in the summer and soon in the fall to really learn the offense and be explosive within it. And that is a really good starting place – if Kyler Murray can supplant him, then it would be something really special indeed.

This is another place where maturity is going to help. People forget how young this team was at SO many positions last year, and QB was one of them. And, oh, by the way, QB is in many ways the most crucial position on the field. Barring issues or transfers, look for A&M to be quality at this position for at least the next 2 if not next four years.

Passing Game – Receivers

Like the QB, the receiver position for our Aggies was terribly young last year, other than Malcome Kennedy. Frankly, I don’t know enough to really speak to what happened in the game against State last year, but the unit that for the 2 years previous had made the big catches, run good routes, and blocked for each other played like scared kids, which for the most part they were. The loss of Kennedy at times last year was a huge blow and now they face a whole season without him.

But then again, you have the maturation of Noil, RSJ and the return of Josh Reynolds, and now you insert Christian Kirk, and that ought to be an improved unit. There is a good chance that consistency at the QB position will also help. Here is another place where a coaching change can have a big impact.

Offense Overall

Kevin Sumlin offenses do not suck. That is a fact and with the talent in the hands of this coaching staff, they ought to improve on last year’s inconsistent performance, barring real issues with the new additions.

As stated previously, I am incredibly interested to see the impact that Dave Christensen may have. If he can right the ship that is the OL unit, and Allen and the wide receivers simply grow up a little and take advantage of the time they have had to learn to play together, there is no reason to think the offense can lose a lot of the inconsistency that cost them dearly last year.

Special Teams

Punt and Kick Return – Speedy Noil ought to continue to make this unit dangerous. His maturity also should help. The open question here is how the rest of the unit will perform. There usually is a lot of change on the return units, especially on the kick return portion, and it will be interesting to see if this unit can be successful.

Kickoffs – like the return units, the coverage portion of the unit usually sees some turnover and it remains to be seen how this challenge will be met. Taylor Bertolet has continued to do well on this unit so that should not change.

Punts - Drew is our boy and nothing changes here. What is exciting for the future is that his backup sounds like a real winner too.

Field Goal/Extra Points – Here is the big concern with the special teams. Bertolet lost his position to former professional soccer player Josh Lambo in 2013 and he was not able to win it back last year. He is three years more developed at this point, so maybe his ability to hit these kicks has improved. Aggies everywhere certainly hope so as he was wildly inconsistent in 2012 and 2013.

Special Teams Overall

Other than Bertolet, odds are these groups will be at least as good as last year, and that is a really good thing. Variability is possible, but Sumlin’s time in Aggieland has seen his team mostly play well in this area of the game.

Up Next

Tomorrow we will look at the schedule game by game.

Aggie 2015 Preview - The Defense

Now the table is set – new coaches to address the issues that developed in the Aggies’ three years, combined with the players available, give us the ability to evaluate the positions and see how things set up for the upcoming season. We will now break things down position by position going forward. Today is the Defense.

Defensive Units

As we at Farmers Fight are part of the Fightin’ Texas Aggie Class of 1993, we are super excited about the changes on the defensive side of the ball. To say it has been painful to watch the defensive issue since the last truly great Wrecking Crew squads. While there have been moments of adequateness here and there, the top level talent, coaching and education that made those defensive units something special has been missing for some time.

But with the way this organization has recruited over the past few years, added to the way some returning players performed last year, and throwing in John Chavis to the coaching staff, there is reason to believe there could be a new Wrecking Crew on the horizon. How close this team can get there in 2015 remains to be seen, but it certainly has all the ingredients to get there.

Defensive Line

Myles Garrett is the big name here, but there is a lot of depth with this group and the coaching staff has shown in past years that they know how to get good production from what they have access to. Add in Daylon Mack when he can grow into the position, and you have the potential for a truly great unit.

Linebackers

Taking bits and pieces from last year, you have the makings of a good unit. The question is whether they can stay healthy and have the depth to survive an SEC season. The really good news is that this is the unit that John Chavis is responsible for, and that has to be a good thing. Reading some tea leaves, The Chief knows that his line is going to be strong and he has some good safeties. If he can help keep the linebackers from being a sieve, then the defense should definitely take some significant steps forward.

Cornerbacks

Here is the real weakness of the team, and this is one place where the scheme Chavis plays actually hurts as it puts the cornerback position on a bit of an island. Long term, this absolutely is the way to go, and there are ways to try to help the cornerbacks, but this season, there might be some real issues. Of course, it isn’t like we didn’t have issues last year.

Safety

A more mature (strong safety) and the addition of Justin Evans gives this unit a very solid starting lineup. This is another place where the Chavis scheme is going to benefit the defense as a whole. There is also some depth at this position too.

Defense Overall

When you put it all together, this is a unit that will be improved if for no other reason than Chavis gives his players a simpler assignment and lets them just get after it. Considering the athletes at his disposal, that ought to improve things in and of itself.

Add in Chavis’ overall attitude and experience will also give the defense a bump. The question is how far they can go, but the nice thing is anything beyond a basic improvement is bonus.

The other thing that really excites me about Chavis’ involvement and the overall improvement of the defense is that the offense will be practicing against a tougher unit, and the increase in intensity on the defense naturally will raise the intensity of the team as a whole.