Areas needing improvement

Maybe I am overreacting to all the greatness from Thursday, but I have this nagging urge to try to find the holes in this team - not to tear down, but just to understand where the weaknesses might be.

And at this point, the sample size is small and the opponents had so many weaknesses themselves that I don't know how effective this might be, but here goes.

The obvious ones:

Simple play from the youngsters, especially on the defensive line. Wait, what? you say. How can I criticize a group that kept the SC QB moving the whole game? I am not really criticizing, more noticing that they didn't do a lot of complicated attacking to confuse the OL. Of course, they didn't need to (a mantra that I think you will read a lot in this series) so there is that. But I do think this is something to watch going forward as it is a set of adjustments that the group will need to do to develop over the course of the season.

We have been over the deficiencies of the secondary enough. No need to rehash it here.

Not much of a vertical passing game. Again, it didn't make sense considering how methodical and effective the mid and short range game was for long stretches of the game, but it was something that might be needed against some teams to stretch the field, and we didn't see enough to really check it off as something the Aggies can do well. On the other hand, we saw everything else we need to see from Hill and his weapons.

Another question is one that simply didn't come up so there is no way to know at this point - how will they react when they are trailing? How will they react when another team is getting the breaks because of a fumble or makes an effective adjustment? Some of this is individual, but some of it is general leadership. Anyone can captain a ship in calm seas, the saying goes. Or, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. How will they react when that happens? Sure, the history of this team is one that makes us think they will be more than just fine, but every year is different and we just don't know about this group at this time. There is a LOT of youth out there...

Then again, there was SO much that went SO well, SO early, in SUCH a challenging environment, that it really is hard not to feel that this team is WAY ahead of schedule. The more I see of other first games for other teams, the more I appreciate how well the Aggies played on Thursday. So much sloppiness, especially from Ole Miss, etc. But our Fightin Texas Aggies? They looked like this was business. Fun business, to be sure, but business nonetheless.

That is very exciting. Very exciting indeed.

Revised expectations as of August 29th, 2014

You see all the comments, and all the stats. You look at what the team did last night, and how can you not get excited about the future of A&M? Let me rephrase - how can you not get MORE excited about the future of this program?

So let's talk perspective for a moment, starting with last night's opponent. How good or bad are they?

South Carolina, in my opinion, is going to beat East Carolina, then lose to Georgia before they can really settle into how they are going to play this year. That puts them a 1-2 before they should win their next four (at Vandy, v. Mizzou, at Kentucky, v. Furman. Maybe they lose to Mizzou?

Then they get the meat of their schedule: at Aub, v. Tenn, at Florida, v. S. Alabama, at Clemson. I don't know if they have the talent to beat Auburn, but they should be good enough to beat Tennessee. Florida will probably win at home if they are as improved as expected. Beating South Alabama isn't a question. It is way too soon to know how good or bad Clemson is going to be. For evaluation purposes, let's put Carolina at 8-4 to 9-3. That is a top 25 team that will play in a reasonably good bowl game.

So while maybe they weren't deserving of being in the top 10, that is still a pretty good win.

Now the Aggies get to play Lamar, Rice and at SMU - all games they should win that will also be good chances to learn and improve. Then they get what should be their easiest SEC conference game, Arkansas. That is a good ramp up of games that should put them at 5-0 and help them really get to full speed.

Then we get to the Mississippi schools. Before Thursday, I think we all had concerns about how good the Aggies were going to be. Now, assuming that they use the next four games appropriately, I think it is safe to say A&M should win the game against Ole Miss and probably against Mississippi State. Ole Miss is at Kyle, and it is right after they play Bama, which will either crush them or have them on cloud nine and not ready to focus on the Aggies. The game against State I think is a matchup problem for the Bulldogs - they don't have a vertical passing game, the thing that is the Aggie weakness right now. And as we saw last two years, the Bulldogs don't have the defense to stop the A&M offense, and this year's offense is likely better than what they faced the last 2 seasons.

Where does that leave us? Undefeated at 7-0 is a distinct possibility, although dropping one to either Mississippi schools - which are both improved - is possible. So let's say 6-1 or 7-0. Either way, a really good start to the year.

Now let's talk the meat, game by game.

At Alabama. At this point in the season, the Tide will have played Florida, Ole Miss and Arkansas, on top of playing West Virginia to start the year, so they will have figured out their personnel and coached up any youth that needs it. There will be no surprises in this game.

It is really too soon to say how good they are going to be, especially as we don't know their quarterback situation. Suffice to say, though, they will be strong. What might have been an 90/10 probable loss before yesterday in the eyes of most is now probably 60/40. I am going to leave this one in the loss column for now until we know more about both teams - how much improved can the Aggie secondary and linebacker corps get, and how good is Bama. 6-2 or 7-1.

Louisiana Monroe - this should be a win, or we have much bigger problems. 7-2 or 8-1.

At Auburn. Here is one of the really interesting games. I think Auburn is really really really good. But they also got really really really lucky in three games last season - against the Aggies, Georgia and Alabama. At least one or two of those games will come back to the mean. They are at Ole Miss the week before, so that should be a challenging game, whereas we are playing La-Monroe. Is that enough for us to win on the road? I am not sure - this is a toss up for me at this point. 7-3/8-2/9-1.

Missouri. I think this is like the Mississippi teams, although as it is later in the year, the chance for Pinkel to coach 'em up is legitimate and one of his strengths. This is a game the Aggies should win if they are what we think they are, though. 8-3/9-2/10-1.

LSU. The Aggie's kryptonite so far in the SEC. Is a win here possible? Very. It is at Kyle, of course. With time to prepare, and LSU is breaking in a lot of new players. When you wash all the possibilities through, I am going to put this in the win column and say that the team is going to end up in the range of 9-3/10-2/11-1.

The realist in me has them losing to Bama, Auburn and LSU or pulling the upset in one of those games while dropping one they probably shouldn't, but if Sumlin is Sumlin and this team plays to potential, 10-2 with losses to Bama and either Auburn or LSU is likely, and I am not counting out the possibility that the only loss is to Bama.

Is 12-0 possible? I must admit that it is now not impossible. But I do think it is unlikely. And from this particular microphone, I am saying, "Let's tap the breaks on any talk of a national title or Heisman Trophy, or even SEC championship." Let's take things one game at a time, and there is a LOT of football to be played. Shoot, even 8-4 is still possible with the holes in the secondary and the loss of Hilliard from the linebacker corps.

But one thing that I think every Aggie can enjoy is the clear fact that this offense is as dangerous, if not more dangerous, as ever, and that alone, along with the continued special teams success and improvement on defense, is worth 8 wins on this schedule barring unimaginable injuries.

Whoop!

Game Grades - Aggies at Carolina

Quick hits on various key positions and situations for both schools.

For South Carolina, let's start with some general comments.

Overall, they were unprepared. Physically, mentally, systemically. They were blown off the ball on both lines, and out coached everywhere. Really, one team looked like they were playing their first game of the year, and the other looked like they were playing their fifth. It was methodical.

From my cheap seat, I think Carolina is better than what they showed last night by a pretty good clip. Play that same game in six weeks, and I think it is a much better game, certainly within a touchdown, and if Davis is healthy, one Carolina might win.

And let's note that the Aggies got quite a few breaks. Carolina was changing defenses to a 3-4, which was not ready for prime time against anyone, let alone the way the Aggies attack on offense. The injury to Davis really hurt them, especially in the ways that they could have slowed the game to where it could have stayed competitive. And as you will see in a moment, they were in awful shape mentally and physically.

Then again, both teams knew the date of the game and the opponent. Both teams had the same amount of time to prepare, so I am not saying it is an excuse - just a practical reality when evaluating how successful A&M was.

I am not going to touch on all the positions, just a few key ones for Carolina.

Strength coach: F. That was a team in terrible shape to start the season.

Defensive coordinator: F. Zero clue how to try to deal with what the Aggies brought to the table.

Scouting: F. Across the board, unprepared for how the Aggies played. Did they not get tape of the Chic-Fil-A Bowl?

Offensive coordinator: D. This isn't an F because they did some things that put pressure on the Aggie defense, especially passing. They tried to deal with the loss of Davis best they could. With Davis healthy, in better overall shape and actual scouting and game planning, this could have been a much closer game.

Head Ball Coach: F. Sorry, Steve, but this is at your feet. Buck stops at your desk, especially for overall preparation and fitness. It wasn't like one area of the team was off - all of them were. You know better than to come into a conference game unprepared, don't you?

For the Aggies, let's start with last year's weaknesses.

Defensive Line: A. What a huge difference depth and talent can make, huh? Across the board, they did the job the team needed and really took Carolina completely out of their game. I actually hesitate to go into too much detail here because I am not sure I could contain my excitement at the potential this group has.

Linebackers: B+. Good but not great yet. They didn't need to be, but we weren't exactly expecting them to become the best in the SEC overnight, did we? The loss of Hilliard is going to hurt, but Mastrogiovanni was very solid and kept things organized. They made the plays they needed to make.

Defensive backs: C. In a lot of ways, this is where we saw the most issues for the team, but what I find exciting is they are very much fixable issues. Everett was trying to help Matthews out too much and it hurt his performance, but hopefully that is addressed. Davis survived. Boy what a revelation Armani Watts was! I think the communication, organization and penalties will be addressed by the time this unit needs to play a top team again, so while this is a low grade, it is also where the best improvement will be.

Special Teams: A. Across the board, these were really really really good. They didn't have that huge touchdown/signature play, but they did everything really well. The punts were good, as was the coverage. Getting the onsides kick was massive. The kickoffs were well taken and well covered too. Lambo was automatic. Noil's one really strong return was nullified by an unnecessary block in the back, but other than that, it was all positives from this group. 

Quarterback: A+. Only real blemish was that chuck that had everyone screaming, "NOOOO!" Not very smart, very very dangerous. It worked out, but that was a bad risk to take. Everything else was pure gold. If I were a betting man, I would be tempted to see what the odds are on Hill setting the SEC single game record for yards in a match. If he can do that to South Carolina...

Running Backs: A. Only thing keeping this from being an A+ is they didn't break a big one - but that isn't entirely fair because they didn't get a lot of opportunities. When they did have opportunities, all three backs were money. My favorite moment of the game was the option by Carson to make it 31-14 - what a punch to the gut, and he made it look easy.

TE: Inc. Would have been an "A" if Clear had been healthy, but just can't give a full grade on something that lasts a quarter. Get well, big man. It was obvious you can be a massive part of a very well oiled machine.

OL: A+. Road graders and impenetrable walls, depending on the play. For the first game of the year, they played like a unit that had played together all season, much like the team as a whole. But OL's tend to get better as they play together. The idea of THIS line improving on that performance should worry every defensive coach the Aggies face.

Snyder: B. Huge improvement overall, and while there were a few plays that could have been called better, under the circumstances it was a really solid job. What is scary is again, the issues from last night are mostly fixable with a few technique changes for the DBs on the PIs, and some learning in terms of how to handle certain passing plays.  I concede this MIGHT be a bit hard on him, but at the end of the day, there were issues and it was on his side of the ball.

Black Death (Larry Jackson): A+. Goodness gracious, but did the Aggies look so much better physically than Carolina? It really looked like a game at Kyle against a team from the north not ready for the heat. What a difference.

Spavital: A+. I really really really hope that Sumlin has his next young offensive playmaker lined up either on staff or in his roladex because what Spav did on Thursday was magical. That was play-calling at its very best, and Carolina was totally out of their depth.

Sumlin: A+. Man, can this guy prepare a large organization to play well on the road or what? Does he always know the right thing to say, whether to the media or his players? He is the hitting all his cues, making all the right moves. Sick.

Overall: A. Some things to improve on, across the board. But I think it is safe to say this team is the best team Sumlin has had in his three years, and that is saying something. The vast majority of the issues are fixable with work in the film room, in practice and in games. Where is the ceiling for this group? Not sure, but they are very well prepared as is and they have clear areas where they can improve - and have the schedule to do it.

If this group does as Sumlin has led them to do, that work will get done and the Aggies have put themselves back into that top group in the SEC West with Alabama, Auburn and LSU. Exciting is such a pale word to use at a time like this, no?

Welcome to Farmers Fight!

"Farmers Fight!" is where I will keep my Texas A&M Athletics stuff, as it doesn't really flow well with the soccer and personal stuff that I post on my other blog, Implausible Dreams.

To be sure, once a top quality program for A&M football was probably an Implausible Dream, but now? Especially after last night's wood-shedding of Steve Spurrier and the South Carolina Gamecocks, it really is hard to look someone in the eye and say that A&M isn't a budding elite program. Success is really not very implausible.

So here we are, at the start of Kevin Sumlin's third season, and he has fired a massive shot across the bow of the rest of the SEC and even the national football powers. "You better bring it. From the first minute. Or what happened to South Carolina will happen to you."

Hell, what must Nick Saban be thinking? Mr. "You took 10 years off my life" now has to rethink how serious he is going to have to take the Aggies, just like a lot of people - not the least of which are those on TAMU's schedule right now. No, folks, it really wasn't all just Johnny Football, although clearly he was a special player and brought some amazing things to the game and the University.

But he was just one of 80+ players. A very very very unique one, but just one. It took the entire roster - everyone pushing each other to be better, to be bigger, stronger, faster, smarter, quicker - to give A&M the 20-6 record over their first two seasons.

And now you see that it is Sumlin and his amazing staff that made all that happen. Talent is necessary, but so is coaching. What you see at A&M right now is a melding of the greatness of both.

What does that mean? It means that A&M is going to be in the top half of the SEC, and will continue to improve. I will talk more later about details, but the bottom line is this - I am not saying this is a national title contender. Too much football remains, and for the 2014 team, it might be a bridge too far. What I am saying, though, is that this is not going to be the No. 6 team in the SEC West, this year or any year in the near future.

Gig 'Em!