Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Grading The Units After Four Games



Okay, so we have played four games, and there has been enough variety of opponents that we can take a snapshot of where each of the units are for our Fighting Texas Aggie Football Team. As we get ready for the big game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, let’s go unit by unit and phase by phase.

Overall, 4-0 (1-0) is as good a way to start the season as possible. Certainly there are some style points that the Aggies left on the field, but undefeated is undefeated. Question is, how good are they really?

Today we start with the defense and special teams. We will look at the offense tomorrow.

Defensive Line – Passing Game – B+

After the Arizona State game, everyone was drooling over this unit as they simply destroyed the Sun Devils’ offensive line. As subsequent games have played out, though, this is a very good, but not that great, unit. That being said, reasonable improvement will continue to happen as the season progresses. The question is, will it progress faster than the level of opponents? Certainly, the Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU games – and possibly the Auburn game – are ones where this unit is going to need to be at its best.

Defensive Line – Running Game – D

This unit has definitely improved since 2014, but it is still vulnerable to making mistakes that make things difficult for the second and third layers behind them. From John Chavis’ comments on Tuesday, it sounds like he is confident that the problems are fixable, which is great to hear, but even moreso than the pass rush, stopping the running game is going to be very difficult, especially against Alabama and LSU. This is in some ways the most important unit on the team because once this team can stop people from running, then it unleashes the pass rush and puts a lot of pressure on the opposing offense to keep up with the Aggie offense – not an easy thing to do.

Linebackers – Passing Game – C

This unit is still getting its bearings due to injuries and suspensions limiting playing time, and in general, it has been effective in both supporting the pass rush and covering its assignments in pass coverage. To a degree, though, this is almost an incomplete as there has not been a lot of reps for this situation (as in, against Arizona State they never really got beyond the line, and the subsequent games did not present a lot of plays testing the linebackers).

Linebackers – Running Game – D

Again, a group limited by injuries, etc., and one that it working to get up to speed. It does not help that the interior of the DL has struggled to contain the run, putting the linebackers in an almost no-win situation. Again, though, Chavis spoke highly of the defenses effort to stop the run, saying that he needed to work on coaching them up. Surely, the challenge they faced against Arkansas is a unique one – rarely will you see a line that good. Then again, Alabama and LSU are looming.

Cornerbacks – Passing Game – B-

This group has made plays when they have had to. Again, undefeated is undefeated. But you have seen plays showing there is vulnerability here. The games against Ole Miss and possibly Auburn will really test what they can do. The good news is that there has been enough pressure on this group to see that they have the ability to make plays and this is not the concern it was coming into the season, both because of coaching and of players stepping up.

Cornerbacks – Running Game – C

These guys are not afraid to make a tackle and have generally been disciplined when the opposition has run the ball.

Safety – Passing Game – B

Almost an incomplete, it is clear that Alaka, Evans and Wilson are definitely solid players and will break things up.

Safety – Running Game – C

In part, they suffer because as a unit the defense is poor defending the run. But like the cornerbacks, they have been generally good tackling the running and being in position to make the tackle.

Special Teams – B+

The fantastic work we had in the first game did not continue through the next three, although it stayed at a very high and positive level, and there is no reason to think it won’t maintain that level of danger and production as long as the key players stay healthy. It is a real positive reflection on the coaching staff that each part of the special teams functions so well.

As with the wide receivers, if Speedy Noil can get healthy and back to last year’s levels of production, this group can get even better. Scary….

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Where Do The Aggies Stand Now?

Well then. Another OT win over Arkansas. What does that mean?

Well, for now, it means that the Aggies are ahead of Arkansas and it is probably safe to say Auburn, and it sets up a fantastic opportunity with the Mississippi State Bulldogs coming to town to put them in the rear-view mirror as a win in that game would give the Bulldogs two losses on the year.

But looking at how State has played against LSU and Auburn, I don't think we can assume that MSU is a win for the Aggies. Certainly not with the way that Arkansas ran against them on Saturday, especially with Dak Prescott still running the show for the Bulldogs.

That being said, if the team takes the lessons from the Razorback win to heart, a win is very achievable as the game is at Kyle Field and will be MSU's second SEC road game in a row. There are some things that the Ags will need to do, but that is another article. Short version relative to this piece, this is a winnable game.

After that comes Alabama, who had some awkward moments against Louisiana Monroe this weekend. Will they be ready for Georgia? Not sure. But then they have to play Arkansas who, if nothing else, will beat up on them. Then comes Ole Miss. Nothing I saw Saturday makes me think those games will necessarily be easier to win. In fact, I would edge them closer to the loss column after seeing the way the OL and defense played. Fixable? Yes. Enough? Yes. But they are not there now.

After that, the games against Auburn, South Carolina, Western Carolina and Vanderbilt remain winnable, but we saw some signs of life from the Gamecocks and Commodores on Saturday, so they bear watching a little more closely.

The LSU game probably moves the same as Bama and Ole Miss - closer to the probable loss column, although again, a lot can happen between now and the end of November.

But bottom line - this game puts the Aggies at 1-0 and feeling confidence that they will improve on last year's record. One game at a time, one season at a time, but this team is still pointed in the right direction.

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Aggies Beat Arkansas - The Takeaways

Here are some first blush takeaways from tonight's 28-21 Aggie victory over the Razorbacks.

Start With The Positives

First, oh my goodness, how impressive was that for the team to respond to a real punch in the mouth? Arkansas had this game in the bag, and the Aggies found a way to still win it. Game balls to Christian Kirk and Josh Reynolds.

Second, we saw a number of other players step up and find a way to make plays against the flow of the game. Myles Garrett rose to the occasion to make a key stop late. It didn't turn into the game winning points, but it did keep Arkansas from driving for their own FG attempt. Kyle Allen made the important throws late - and frankly was money for those last few series.

Third, more props to Allen for the composure when they brought in Murray again. It really takes someone with a special focus to handle that. And winning the turnover battle? Me likey! Drew Kaser showing he can tackle does not bother me one bit.

Finally, a little perspective - the Aggies won the first half. It may not have felt like it, but they did. They stole a possession with an interception, and they got another stop. Holding an opponent to 7 points in a half is a good thing. Yes, things got real loose in the second half, and we all had doubts, but for much of the first half, it seemed like this was a game the Aggies would survive. Little did we know how close the shave was going to be...

But unfortunately, while there were positives that came out of the game and clearly, this team is better than they were last year, it is also very clear this team is not championship caliber and there is much to fix. To wit:

Offensive Line - not as bad as it could have been, but certainly there are issues. In a huge game that meant a lot, they were not able to dominate. In the SEC, that is a real problem. Especially when the other positions on offense are not clicking. The Aggies won today because they made some really key plays at the right time, not because they were able to dominate the game, frankly, at any point.

Defense - there was a sense of accomplishment from the Arizona State game, and it was deserved. They overwhelmed a young offensive line with one of the best pass rushes in college football. But that masked other issues. Specifically, a run defense that was clearly exposed - granted, but a formidable running game. Also, surprisingly, a short passing game that Arkansas used early to score their first touchdown. True, it was a surprising tactical move and one that I did not expect to succeed, even with the element of surprise on their side. But we knew coming into this game that the linebackers and corner-backs were potential liabilities, and we saw that for much of this game.

While there is gobs of talent on the defense, it is not the Wrecking Crew, and probably won't be this year. What they are, though, is a significant improvement over last year, even after today's showing. They have clear work to do, but they found a way to win and now know where the gaps are. They will be better for it.

Offense/Passing - this is what should really scare people. The Sumlin Offense is supposed to be full throttle, dangerous and effective. For long stretches tonight, it was anything but. While Allen, Reynolds, Kirk and Carson made key plays down the stretch, the pressure this offense is supposed to put defenses under has really not materialized this season.

And I can't tell what the cause is. Certainly, the offensive line struggles don't help. But also for a lot of passes, it appears that the quarterback and the wide receivers are not in synch, outside of Kirk almost all of the time and Josh Reynolds often enough. The smooth plays that Allen makes to Kirk sure makes me think that it is not Allen but the wide receivers, but maybe it is just that Allen has worked with Kirk more? I don't know, but this offense won't be what it needs to be until that changes. Noil, Ricky Seals-Jones and others need to be viable threats otherwise the opposing defense can just focus on Kirk and Reynolds and shut it all down.

One final note - Taylor Bertolet has been good until today, and today he missed a game winning kick. Needles to say, that is not good, but don't jump off the deep end - he has been consistent at the "gimme" stuff that he was missing at times before John Lambo. So let's just know that he will most likely make the stuff we need him to make, but he has work to do on the mid-range stuff.

Summary points

1 - They survived an absolutely desperate SEC foe that certainly has enough talent to win. That shows some real effectiveness under pressure - pressure they will feel again and again. Certainly next week's game against Mississippi State will be at least as intense. And in the games against Auburn, South Carolina and Vanderbilt, there will need to be composure.

2 - They learned a lot about themselves, especially in terms of what they need to work on. There is always value there, if the coaching staff and team leadership sets things up right and the players put in the work to make it pay off.

3 - At least for now, we can slow our roll about beating Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU. That isn't to say that there isn't the talent, or that this team can't find a way to win those games. But for now, we have good reason to believe this team is going to have to work to earn wins against Mississippi State and the teams listed in Point 1.

Bottom Line

A win is a win. And a win against a talented but desperate team is big. Eight wins before a bowl game is an improvement for this team from last year, and deserved improvement. But let's not waste the learning opportunity this team got tonight by enjoying the success of the team - rather, let's recognize the team is still a work in progress and make the most of it.

Friday, September 25, 2015

Aggies v Razorbacks - more unit v unit evaluation

So after reading through the various takes on the game this weekend, we have a few more thoughts on certain match-ups and the game as a whole. Most of them favor the Aggies, but do not underestimate a few things.

Let's talk in a little more specificity than we did in our earlier piece (HERE) about certain match-ups. Don't miss our other articles about the first look at Arkansas v A&M, as well as Importance of the Nevada Game.

Aggie DL v Arkansas OL

When the Arkansas massive OL is in pass protection, they have yet to give up a sack this season. That changes Saturday as that is due in large part to their opposition. The Aggie DL, unlike their previous challengers, is just too good, too fast, and strong enough in enough places to not pressure Allen some and nick him a few times. At least once they will get the sack.

This is good for A&M because it puts more pressure on their running game to be perfect, and very few running games are perfect.

In run blocking, their OL will be effective, but if the A&M linebackers and secondary stay disciplined, the defense will eventually force mistakes, getting the ball back into the hands of the offense.

This is a great challenge for this unit as they have given up a few big plays in the running game by not staying disciplined, and if they rise to it, it will be a fantastic growth moment for the team as a whole.

Aggie LBs, Secondary v. Arkansas RBs, TEs, WRs

This is the game - period, paragraph. The back half of the A&M defense will need to do their job to contain the Razorback offense and force them to make the mistakes that kill drives and cost teams scores. Frankly, with the Sun Devil OL so terrible, this will be the first real test of Chavis' system. Has it simplified the game enough that his limited talent options at certain positions (CB, to a degree LB) can be aggressive yet not lose containment?

If the answer is yes, then this game should be a blowout barring abject failure from the offense. Considering that the Texas Tech defense - which is not as talented as the Aggie unit - kept Alex Collins from breaking long runs and kept the Arkansas receivers in front of them, you would think that Chavis' players can do the same.

In that case, Arkansas might score some, but probably not more than 21-24 points, and that should be more than enough for the TAMU offense to eclipse.

Aggie OL v. Arkansas DL

Simply put, the Arkansas defense as a whole is not what it was last year, and that includes the DL. On the other hand, the Aggie OL has not been good in pass protection, so this might be a bit of a push.

In the running game, it probably is an advantage of the Aggies as they have worked well to run the ball this season. It is in the passing game that there is some worry for Sumlin's crew. Spavital spoke this week about how the team had been working on establishing a running game in the first three matches and that they expect improvement in pass protection, but this is a big step up from what they had been facing the first 3 weeks.

But whether it is the OL being more successful or it is rollouts and other designed plays to keep the rush from the quarterback, the key on offense will be to getting the QB time to make plays. Do this, and the clear advantage A&M will have will break the game open.

Aggie RBs, TEs, WRs v. Arkansas LBs, Secondary

It is here that A&M has the clearest advantage, and with the way Tech had their way with the Razorbacks last week, you have to think this is where the game turns into a blowout. Arkansas really struggled last week with skill players on the perimeter, but Tech has no one like Christian Kirk or Speedy Noil.

This is why the trick for the Aggie offense is making sure Allen or Murray have time to make good decisions and not make mistakes. If the offense can be effective at getting the ball into the hands of their skill players on a consistent basis, the scoring may never stop.

The Concerns

So that is a lot of stuff on paper. On film. In other words, not this day, these opponents, these referees (and it sure seems like Arkansas has gotten some tough calls of late). Any given Saturday and all that.

My biggest concern - because of the impact it would have on the game, not the likelihood of it happening - is coming out flat. There is zero chance Arkansas comes out flat as their backs are against the wall. If this young team comes into the game with an air of "we bad" like they did last year, this more desperate Arkansas team could really put a scare into the game and possibly steal it. With the OL struggling in pass protection, a hurried interception or a sack and a fumble is entirely possible. That is how the script gets flipped.

Another concern is the Aggies running the ball, but not being able to take advantage of it - either because the QB doesn't have time to make plays or WRs are dropping the ball. Or, possibly, slowing the game down via the run enough that Arkansas can stay close. I do expect the Aggies to run the ball successfully. But if they don't pressure the back half of the Arkansas D until it is too late, the pucker factor may not work in the Ags favor.

The Bottom Line

Frankly, though, those are just things to look out for, not things I expect. I expect Texas A&M to be ready for this game. Between last year's experience, this years team leadership and John Chavis (anyone want to play flat under that guy? Me neither), the Aggies will come out ready to play and prove themselves. In fact, I expect them to be pretty hungry to prove themselves in SEC play. Surely some sense the opportunity there with Auburn and Arkansas struggling. Put Arkansas into major difficulty with a loss in this game, and you can pretty much scratch them off the list of concerns. Whoever loses the Auburn-Mississippi State game will also be out of the running. So with one victory, the Aggies can move past at least two teams with a chance to move past a third the following week.

As for the game itself, I expect Arkansas to run the ball and keep things close for a half. I expect the Aggie offense to be moderately effective - enough to take a lead but not really stretch the game. It could even be tied at half. But unless Spav or the quarterback has a horrible day, the Arkansas defense will eventually buckle under the pressure and A&M will break away. Arkansas simply does not have enough strengths in enough places. In fact, this is a great example of how the Sumlin-Chavis system will separate A&M from the middle of the pack in the SEC.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

The Aggie Schedule Sets Up Well

Coming into the year, a lot of people looked at the Aggie schedule and was very high on how it set up for TAMU. And certainly, the number of home games and home games against key opponents sure looked like the table was set for success.

Now we all know that a schedule means little in college football when so many unknowns litter the landscape. And as we have seen, many preconcieved notions about the SEC West in 2015 have proven false.

Arkansas? Not a dark horse to win the league. Auburn? Not a national championship contender. Alabama? Can't just reload - some of their talent actually needs to learn how to play together.

As for our Aggies, John Chavis really can work miracles. Holy hand grenades, Batman, has he turned what was a poor unit last year into one that can really beat up on teams, and while the offense still needs to develop, especially in terms of a vertical passing game, they have successfully developed a real running game.

So let's look at the schedule now that we know more about most teams.

First, Arkansas this weekend. Considering the talent gap, it really comes down to execution by the Aggies. If the coaches and team leadership can get A&M to play at a high level, the win should be theirs. But there are a number of things to watch out for as we wrote earlier.

Mississippi State

Then the Aggies host Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are coming off a very successful season based on a senior heavy team. The problem with teams like that is seniors graduate and there are a lot of questions about how good this team will be. The only real result we have to look at for them this season is their home loss to LSU - a team that has played above expectations early.

So how good is this Bulldog side? We will probably know more after this weekend as they play fellow early-season-disappointment Auburn in what has to be considered an elimination game. It will be the second conference loss in two games for whoever does not win with games against powerhouses Ole Miss, Alabama remaining on the schedule.

Initially, I had this as the most winnable SEC West game for the Ags. Now I think the Arkansas game takes that slot with this game probably at the same level or possibly a bit tougher if they can find a way to beat Auburn. Obviously, we will have to see how both State and our Aggies play, but considering their personnel losses, and that it is the first SEC game at New Kyle, it would take either a monumental step up from the Bulldogs or a real dip in form for this to be a loss. Again, the asterisk is still there until we see how they play, because LSU could be a lot better than expected....

Alabama

Oh boy, this one could be interesting. If the Aggies have matured the way they probably should, then odds are you have them coming into this game undefeated. Bama could very well come into this game on 2 losses as they have already lost to Ole Miss and have to travel to Georgia. On top of that, they have to play Arkansas at home while the Aggies have a bye.

The table could not be set any better for A&M to get their first home win against the Crimson Tide at Kyle Field in SEC play. Then again, Alabama is still extremely more talented and by the time they face the Aggies, they will have been through more games and had an opportunity to see which players were settling out and which ones needed to be replaced.

This is still going to be a very tough game, but it certainly seems like the window is cracked a touch more than it was coming into the season. Both teams have some big games between now and then, so we will know more as we get closer, but suffice to say, I am super excited about seeing how this team would fare playing against a one-loss Tide team with a chance to stay undefeated.

At Ole Miss

No real change here. If anything, this game has gotten tougher as Mississippi now has the confidence of having beaten Alabama on the road, and we know what that does to a team.

The challenge for the Aggies is that Ole Miss does not have a real challenge between now and then. They host Vandy this weekend, then go to Florida the following week. That might require some effort, but it isn't like having to go to Death Valley or Tuscaloosa. Then they host New Mexico State before traveling to Memphis the weekend before the game against A&M.

Barring injuries, the Aggies are really going to have to elevate their play to take a win in this game.

South Carolina

Trap game. No other way to put it. The Gamecocks' season is going in the toilet and will likely be a lost cause by the time they come to Kyle Field. With what happened last year, this is definitely a game they might get up for and the Ol Ball Coach has been known to pull out an upset or two. No matter the record the team comes into this game with, it will be a natural let down from having prepared to play the Tide and Ole Miss.

This is a game that should not be a challenge on paper. This is a game that is all about mental preparation and execution, especially with Auburn up next. If the Aggies get caught looking forward to War Eagle, it could cost them.

Auburn

Who knows where Auburn will be when this game happens. Already, they are wheels-off and starting a redshirt freshman at quarterback and their defense just pulled an Aggies at Bama circa 2014 in their game against LSU.

This is another place where the schedule helps the Aggies as War Eagle will have to play Ole Miss the week before they come to Kyle Field. Even if they survive their game against Mississippi State and games at Kentucky and Arkansas, that Ole Miss game will be a physical test. In fact, the back to back to back of Arkansas, Ole Miss and the Aggies will make it very difficult for what has already proven to be a thin roster to survive.

That being said, these Tigers certainly have the talent if their coaching and team leadership can get their act together. And like South Carolina, this is a revenge game for the opponent.

Western Carolina

Surely this game should not be a question, but rather a chance to rest some nicks and cuts, bumps and bruises, but this team is still very very young (three leading tacklers are sophomores) and so staying focused is going to be important.

Here is where the let downs against Ball State and Nevada make me a little nervous....

At Vanderbilt

This is a road game in the SEC, so it should not be taken lightly, but if there is a team in the SEC that is falling behind the pack, it is the Commodores. This game is sandwiched between games against Kentucky and at Tennessee, so probably not one that Vandy will be super excited for.

It also sounds like there might be a decent traveling contingent. This is another focus game where it is going to be important for the coaches and team leaders to keep everyone on target.

At Louisiana State University

Oh, the game this could turn out to be. The great news for the Aggies is that unlike the A&M schedule, LSU comes into this game having had to play Ole Miss on the road. Yes, the Aggies have to travel as well, but it is to Vanderbilt after a game against Western Carolina, whereas the Bayou Bengals will have to face Arkansas then travel to Ole Miss before hosting the Aggies, interestingly similar to Auburn.

Like the Aggies, we simply don't know enough about LSU to really forecast this game well. What we do know is their defense has not taken any sort of step back, which is not really a surprise although I am sure some hoped the loss of Chavis might slow their roll a bit. Unluckily for the Ags, at least for this season, that does not appear to be happening. They also have a monster running game.

The question is whether a high-powered, hurry up offense can force them out of their game plan as we certainly have not seen them be able to pass very well. The great thing is the Ole Miss game the week before ought to give us a good barometer of where their current weaknesses might be.

Overall

The bottom line here is that this is still a very young team that is figuring out what works best for them. That "figuring out" makes me nervous against Arkansas and Mississippi State, but I think it is a good bet that Sumlin and Co. find a way to get those victories. That leaves the Alabama game as the first real chance for a loss, and at this point, it is a huge unknown. The Ole Miss game after that is likely a loss unless some real magic is happening in College Station.

After that pair, that could be 1 or 2 losses, the Aggies then need to avoid let downs to keep winning before the game in Louisiana.

Barring a real collapse, this team should end up somewhere between 8-4 and 10-2, which is a moderate improvement on last year, but more importantly, for a sophomore heavy team, is a great foundation for the next two seasons.

My educated guess at this point has the Aggies losing to Ole Miss and probably Louisiana State and one other game - either Alabama or a trap game - for a 9-3 season.


Aggies v. Arkansas - The Matchups

Both teams are starting off their SEC play and neither team wants to start with a loss. Motivation is not going to be an issue, certainly not for the Razorbacks. With two losses on the season already, Arkansas is that cornered animal. The Aggies are going to get their best on Saturday.

The thing is, in terms of overall talent, the Aggies should have the edge, and overall they are playing better. But the desperation from the Razorbacks makes them dangerous. Also, schematically there might be some issues.

So let's dive in. First, the Razorbacks have been good with their coverage teams. Considering the level of opponents they have faced, that may not be much of a test but overall, we can't expect them to be poor here. Opposing them is one of the best return units in the SEC. While we should expect A&M to have some success here, I don't think we can count on it being like it was against Arizona State, etc.

On the other hand, their return teams have not been spectacular. With the Aggies' kicking game on solid footing, odds are that at the very least, A&M should be able to slowly improve their field position as the game goes along.

When The Aggies Run

This has been a place where A&M has not been successful since a certain Heisman Trophy winner left - frankly, in large part because he was so good at running the ball. This year has seen the team make a more concerted effort to develop this part of their game, with some obvious success.

The Razorbacks lost a lot of players from their solid defense from last season, and it has shown, although none of their opponents have had the kind of running game that A&M has (which is kind of awkward to say). There is a good chance that A&M's success this year has been because it has been against inferior teams. This is an area to watch.

That being said, part of the Aggies' success has been from the QB position, and Tech was able to run their quarterback well for key plays, so that is a breakdown to look for. If Kyle Allen can make those short 5-10 yard runs to get the 1st down to keep drives alive, this could be a long day for Arkansas.

When the Aggies Pass

Tech did a phenomenal job of getting skill players in space, but that is in large part what their offense is based on. The Aggies certainly have that as a part of their game, but they have not excelled at it since the end of the 2013 season. Even this season against inferior teams, they have not consistently been able to hurt opponents. On the other hand, considering how slow the Razorbacks are on defense, it is very possible that this is where the Aggies can open up the playbook and make Arkansas pay for their limitations. Certainly, players like Kirk and Noil will be worries for the Razorbacks all game.

A key to watch here is A&M's ability to pass protect and design plays to free Allen from the pass rush. Spavital spoke this week about how they had worked on the running game through the Nevada game and that he expected the pass protection to improve now that they had made progress on the running game. If they can keep Allen's jersey clean, he will likely find enough targets in space to really hurt Arkansas.

Considering that the Razorbacks were unable to pressure Texas Tech much certainly ought to give the offense reason for confidence.

When Arkansas Runs

This is part of the Razorback game that should worry the Aggies. not so much because they have had great success this season, but more that they have traditionaly been good at it, return much of their offenseive line that was so successful last season, and have progressed in this phase of the game as the season progressed.

Frankly, it has been a tough season for Arkansas here - the loss of Jonathan Williams before the season started was huge. Add into that the fact that new coordinator Dan Enos was brought in to develop the passing game and started the season with a pass-heavy focus and you have a team leaning the wrong way to start with. Add in the fact that Alex Collins was not fully healthy going into the Toledo game and you basically have a team handicapped in their major strength.

But for large swaths of the Tech game, Arkansas was able to run the ball at will - for large chunks. And this is up against what has been an issue for the Aggies in past seasons. And even this season, they have given up some long runs, especially early in the Ball State game.

That being said, the Aggies DL is solid and the defense as a whole may have made a mistake or two here or there, but they have not continued to make them (another huge improvement with Chavis joining the staff). This is going to be a very good challenge for the linebacking unit. The good news for the Ags here is that this unit got close to fully staffed for the Nevada game and now most of those players have gotten reps. They are as healthy as they ever have been for the first big challenge.

When Arkansas Passes

This is another area that the Aggies ought to have an advantage. The Razorbacks simply are not ready for the speed and skill of this defensive line, and they could very possibly overwhelm them. The Razorback offensive line is massive, but not necessarily quick. And Brandon Allen did not look at all comfortable scrambling against Tech.

Add into that the fact that the Razorbacks have lost a number of wide receivers in their three games this season, and Arkansas did not have a lot of talent at the position to begin with. Throw in the fact that Allen has not been phenomenal in the passing game this season and you have a recepie for a bad matchup.

The trick, though, is play action. If Arkansas can establish a solid running game and get ahead or stay even, play action is going to be a concern. Allen made a number of solid passes from this against Tech.

Overall

So the bottom line is that, if Sumlin and the coaching staff and team leaders can keep this team focused and aggressive, the talent and scheme advantages should lead A&M to the win. The Aggies simply have too many playmakers on both sides of the ball.

But it is entirely possible that Arkansas will play their best game of the season to date - in large part because they need to - and keep things competitive for much if not all of the game, and it is going to take those playmakers to win the game.

Personally, I have faith that between that brain trust and the experience this team went through last season, they will not come into this game soft but rather will play their own best game of the season to get the win. But as a good friend of mine reminded me today, we are talking about a major sporting event based on the minds of 18-20 year old college kids.....

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Looking To Aggies against Arkansas

Here comes the meat of the schedule for the Aggies. After dominating a tough game against Arizona State, Texas A&M played Ball State and Nevada, working on technique and system, and successfully integrated some players who had not started the year either for injury or suspension.

Overall, we saw improvement at the linebacker and running game efforts. We also saw a few issues at cornerback emerge. But overall, this team is further along than any thought they might be, mostly because the defense is miles beyond what most would even admit hoping for. But also, the establishment of a running game has to be encouraging.

Further, we saw the continued success of Christian Kirk and Josh Reynolds, as well as more use of other wide receivers like Noil, RSJ, etc. I think most Aggies would feel more comfortable if the team would have developed more plays over the middle and vertically, but that is likely just the coaches holding cards close to the vest and focusing on getting an effective running game.

Oh and the special teams units have been spectacular. Kirk and Noil are good for a big return at least once a game. Kaser flips the field almost every time he kicks and Bertolet has been spot on for all the short and mid-range kicks he has needed to make. The only really open question on special teams is whether Bertolet can hit something from moderate to long distance.

On top of that, the team worked in a number of 2s and 3s to get them experience and see who can do what. Granted, they did not perform well at times, but with the 1As and 1Bs playing so well, this should not be a huge concern.

The concern, though, is pass blocking. The Aggies have given up a good bit of sacks - not good.

Looking at Arkansas, though, they are a dumpster fire, having lost two in a row to the Toledo Rockets and Texas Tech - at home. The team some predicted as a dark horse in the SEC - not the SEC West, but the SEC - looked in some ways like they had completely lost their way.

Upon closer examination, though... appearances are deceiving.

In the Toledo game, Alex Collins was coming off a short week due to an illness and the team could not make the Red Zone plays they needed to for the win. Against Tech, they were in the game the whole way - almost always within a touchdown or tied - until late. Granted, Tech is not the best defensive team, but they are much improved with a new defensive coordinator that had them tackling in space, etc. (sound familiar?).

Specifically, for the vast majority of the drives, they were able to run the ball for more than 3 yards a carry - often 5-7 yards or more - and also make the short and mid range throws needed to keep the chains moving.

In my opinion, as good as the Aggies are on defense, they are still going to have to play really well to stop Arkansas' offense, and when TAMU has the ball, they cannot afford mistakes.

This is going to be a bar fight - especially considering how desperate Arkansas will be to salvage their season - and this young Aggie team had better be ready for it.

Friday, September 18, 2015

Why Nevada Is Important To The Aggie Future

So the Aggies play the Nevada Wolfpack on Saturday morning, and we have previously discussed continued improvement is a reasonable expectation, and frankly, most units are on pace if not well ahead of preseason expectations. The one units that really have us concerned are the offensive line, linebackers and cornerbacks. The cornerbacks are what they are, but the linebackers are getting a lot of depth back this week that need to integrate into the team, and the offensive line has enough raw talent to improve their play.

Let's take a closer look, though, at why we have been worried about how this team is shaping up.

Arkansas. The Arkansas Razorbacks are the first SEC challenge that our Aggies will face. Following the week after that will be Mississippi State - and a State team that is probably desperate for a win after having already lost to LSU and having gone to Auburn the week the Ags play Arky.

Both of those are solid programs that can run the ball when they choose to, and they both have defenses that can get to the quarterback. Add in Alabama following those two games, and you have three key SEC games where defending the running game and being effective on running the ball will be key to success.

So this Nevada game is the last real chance to see how good the linebackers can be, and how much improvement the offensive line can make before the real tests coming in the following weeks.

Let's flip the look to the opponents for a moment, though.

Arkansas started the season with a big win against UTEP. As the team was a monster late last season, with a powerful running game and strong defense, the fact that they were passing well against a poor team raised eyebrows.

But then they laid an egg against Toledo. They stayed with a passing game that did well 20 to 20, but could not score in the red zone and ended up losing the game. Part of this is due to the loss of one of their 1,000 yard running backs from last year, and part of this was the other was getting over his own health issues late last week. Maybe the lack of focus on the running game was simply because they didn't have either of their guys full speed and that could change in a hurry.

The Razorbacks play Texas Tech in Arkansas on Saturday. Improved from last year? Mmmmm.... Not sure. But a pissed off Razorback side, in their house? With Alex Collins probably at full speed? It probably won't be the pasting it was last year, when a tired and poor Tech defense just got run over, but I can't in good conscience say that I think Tech has any real chance.

That being said, it will be an important game to watch to see two things - one, how well can they get back to running the ball, and yet, two, how effective can they be passing the ball. If they can figure some things out, and the defense can remain solid (remember, Toledo only scored 16 last week), the Razorbacks will still be a huge test for the Aggies on the 26th.

As for Mississippi State, they play a cupcake this week, so really, the game to watch for them is their game on The Plains against War Eagle on the 26th.


Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Reality Check - Ball State Evaluation

The final score was 56-23, after being up 49-3. In some ways, that is good (getting up 49-3). In some ways, not so good. but mostly it is good and then good. Specifically, the 1s did really well for the most part, and you could tell it was constructive for them. Additionally, you could tell that the 2s also did well for the most part.

And while the other players did not play as well, and there is something to be said for them coming in with less focus and energy, rather than coming in hungry and firing, at the same time we got to see some of those players rise to the occasion and it will be good to add them to the depth chart for when we need more than just 30-40 guys to beat teams (which is coming soon).

So let's go unit by unit real quick and make some notes.

The Defensive Line

Oh my goodness this group is strong and deep. There really isn't much other to say here as they played really well for much of the game.

Linebackers

Getting a little depth back and seeing those who did play do well gives us some confidence. That being said, we need to see more progress as the real SEC games are coming fast. Winning the Arkansas and Mississippi State games will be key to separating us from the bottom of the SEC West and right now, those both look very possible, but only if the team as a whole - and this unit specifically - continues to work and improve. Getting Hilliard back in time to play Nevada is important.

Safeties

While not as strong as in the Arizona State game, the safety play against Ball State was strong enough that it stays in the positive category with momentum. If they do well against the running game of the Wolfpack, then I think we can go into the Razorback game with some real confidence.

Cornerbacks

We saw some cracks in the armor here. A few times they were beaten, and they earned some laundry. We should not be surprised, but it does highlight that this group also has work to do.

Special Teams

Once again, solid to spectacular across the board. Opponents return teams better have their assignments straight or the Aggies will be working from a short field a lot - and that is not something you want to give this offense on any sort of regular basis. The coverage units were also good. The only concern I had was we didn't see Bertolet get tested... Might want to find a way to do that before we are in an SEC game... Of course, you have to take what the game gives you.

Wide Receivers

I feel much better after this game about the wide outs. Reynolds was solid, Kirk showed he wasn't just a one-hit wonder, and we saw progress from Noil, Seals-Jones and the other receivers. We need to see more progress and the Nevada game ought to offer that opportunity, but as long as people continue to work, this group will be ready come September 26th.

Quarterbacks

Much more effective, albeit against a less challenging situation. Both Allen and Murray got more experience and comfort running this offense and made adjustments as needed. This is so key as the learning curve in college football is steep for QBs. Set aside the Manziel experience - usually, it takes at least a year or two of starts to really learn all the ups and downs needed to be successful with this kind of system.

Running Backs

Going into the Ball State game, I was really worried about the depth at this position, but after this game and Sumlin's comments earlier this week, I am less worried for now. Depth could still be an issue if injuries hit this group hard, but with James White missing only by coaches decision to rest him and the way the 3s and 4s played, I feel good that this group can be effective with the players we have. Sumlin saying that the two true freshmen RBs will redshirt made me breath a sign of relief.

The Offensive Line

Progress was made, and that is a good thing. And if more progress is made next week, then we will be good. But this is not what this team has had in the past and they have to learn faster than they are if they want to beat teams like Alabama. In fact, I am concerned about both Arkansas and Mississippi State right now, although a good showing against Nevada could settle my stomach.

This game saw sacks and QB hurries that shouldn't be seen against a mid-table MAC team. Especially with the additional roll-outs, etc., that Spavital did.

Overall

The good thing is that the problems this team is facing are problems we expected and we have seen more progress than we thought we might. In fact, the only real trouble spot that I am not confident a solution will be found in time is the OL. I think the LBs and CBs will be good enough by the time we enter SEC play that getting the "must have" wins will be done, and the other units are playing well enough to beat the Razorbacks and Bulldogs already. It is just the offensive line that I do not think is ready for those games just yet, and am not confident in what I have seen that they will get there with relative ease.

No, I think the OL is going to have to really do some work to get ready in time for Arkansas and Mississippi State. Can they do it? Do they have the resources (players, coaches, time) to do it? Yes. But it is going to be in their hands to get that work done.