So let's talk about this in more than 140 characters. Where will Kyler Murray sign? No idea, but we can talk about the factors that will play into it, especially as we brace ourselves for his in-home visit from Sumlin and company tonight.
To start with, let's acknowledge that he committed, as expected, to A&M back in May and has not said anything implying anything other than he remains committed ever since.
But he has also taken an unscheduled visit to Austin to meet with the Longhorn staff last Wednesday. That threw a lot of people for a loop, especially the Aggie fans, although it should be noted that he did advise Sumlin he was going.
On top of that, you have a handful of high-level recruits that are either not committed or are seriously considering other options and where Murray goes might very well have a bit impact.
Now Sumlin has a meeting with Kyler tonight, but Strong has an in-house tomorrow, and all of Texas and a lot of those outside Texas is waiting with baited breath on if he will flip to the Longhorns on February 4 or not.
So what are the kinds of things running through Camp Murray's brain trust right now? Let's break it down.
First has to be opportunity to play quarterback right away. Everyone wants that, and understandably so. With the Longhorns, the door is wide open. At A&M, you have Kyle Allen, a highly rated player who fought through some ups and downs last year, but still is considered a quality prospect. Advantage Longhorns.
Second is in what system. Returning players, success of the system, etc. Here A&M has the edge as the Longhorns really struggled last year, and it was anything but all about poor quarterback play. Next year's Longhorn team will not have as a good an offensive line or skill position players whereas the Aggies return young talent in many places. Additionally, A&M addressed some inconsistent play on the offensive line and at wide receiver with a new coaches that have solid resumes. Strong has made his own changes on his staff, but does his system come with the credibility and track record that Sumlin's does?
As for the changes Strong is thinking about making in his offense - remember that the talent there was recruited to play other systems. Can they just shift to a Murray-friendly system on the fly like that? That is a real question mark.
Third is the elephant in the room - baseball. Is this all about nothing, for him to get drafted by a MLB team in the summer, never to play for a college football team? It is entirely possible that he will be drafted, and very possibly sign, but it is anything but nothing. Remember those other recruits mentioned earlier? Murray's decision will definitely hold sway with them to a degree - how large a degree remains to be seen.
But with two things, baseball gives the Longhorns a reason for Kyler to take them seriously. First is his uncle, Calvin Murray. An ex-Longhorn, he played five years in the Majors. That is a relationship that equals the relationship Kevin Murray might have with Aggieland, especially considering that the elder Murray has not been buddy-buddy with the A&M program or Sumlin. He has been, in my opinion understandably, professional in his business. Remember, this is a major decision for his son and it can't all be about the old college ring. Second, the Longhorn baseball program is a juggernaut, whereas the Aggie program is good but not fantastic.
Fourth are general relationships. By various accounts, Kyler has had and maintains a strong relationship with Johnny Manziel. The Aggie Heisman Trophy winning QB has apparently continued to encourage the younger Murray to play for Sumlin, but he also was a clear fan of Teddy Bridgewater when he was at Louisville under Strong. Can he honestly tell Murray that Strong doesn't know how to use a talented quarterback? Also, there is a string of ties between Murray, wide receiver DeMarkus Lodge (who went with Murray to Austin on that visit last week), Daylon Mack, cornerbacks Kris Boyd and Holton Hill and linebacker Malik Jefferson, who enrolled at UT for this semester.
Here is where things get muddy. Is Mack, who is close with Jefferson, simply honoring his relationship with Malik with his engagement with the Longhorns? Same for Lodge and Murray? It is very scary for Aggie fans to think that all of this could lead to all of those players signing with the Longhorns. From that standpoint, Strong has every reason to press as hard as he can and play every card possible. That scary prospect for Aggies? Very real possibility.
But how often does that happen? That a group of friends that talk about signing with the same school to play together - no matter how talented - end up actually signing there? And why? Because at the end of the day, this is business. Big business. They have put years of time and effort into getting to this point, and they are going to do what is in their best interest - because that is what they should do. Frankly, that is why (in my opinion) Jefferson signed with UT when he did. He had to due to enrollment reasons, and Sumlin had not hired Chavis by the time that deadline hit.
So looking at that, at least for the defenders, that keeps A&M in play in a big way. The Chavis Effect is real - especially for those talented enough to think they can play in the NFL. Strong's defensive record is good, but not as good as The Chief's, and ultimately, I think the Aggies will get their share. Certainly enough to continue the upward trajectory of their recruiting efforts on that side of the ball. Indications are that Boyd has taken a lot of unofficial visits to Aggieland rather than Austin, among other things. Mack de-committed from Sumlin when Jefferson committed to UT, but then clearly reacted to the Chavis hire. Even Holton Hill took the Aggies more seriously. Again, I don't think the Aggies clean up, but they will get their fair share.
Quick note on Mack - he continued to take TCU seriously. That is a very real possibility. The note about him cancelling his official visit this weekend? Apparently he took his official visit last year and was not eligible to go this weekend, so *probably* that means nothing, although if he really did want to see TCU again, why not go on an unofficial? Just don't count the Horned Frogs completely out.
For Lodge, I think it is unlikely he lands with Sumlin. A lot of services still list him as with his commitment, Ole Miss. In fact, I think he flips to UT if that is where Murray goes, but otherwise he probably stays with Mississippi. Remember, opportunity to play right away? Much better in Oxford than College Station for a wide receiver.
So that brings us back to Kyler, and frankly, it is truly sixes. Does he think he can catch and pass Allen in the summer? If so, then there is no reason for him to think he can't succeed with the Aggies. But if there is doubt there, then the other angles come into play. I don't think baseball alone will drive that bus because if he was that focused on baseball, why spend all this time and energy on football? And if he is going to get a MLB offer and expect to sign this summer, which college he agrees to go to is academic anyway.
And I don't think that the elder Murray will let Kyler make a decision based on friendships. No, this is big business, not high school drama. In fact, I expect both Kevin and Calvin to tell Kyler that. And if Kyler thinks he will have a better career with Strong and UT, then that is where he will sign. The chance to play right away is in fact a strong incentive.
But Kyler also hasn't gotten to where he is by taking the easy road. Aside from Kyle Allen, everything else points to College Station as the best place for Murray to develop his talent and have a shot at the NFL. Ultimately, I think all the other factors - current status of the program, the offensive system being used, the talent already in the system - weigh too much in Sumlin's favor and he ultimately signs with Texas A&M on February 4.
Quick notes about Oregon. By all accounts, they are trying to get into the mix there, and if Murray takes a visit up there over the weekend, you have to seriously consider them getting into the race, but a few things make me wonder how serious it is. First, they have not only recruited Murray at quarterback, so on the first point (opportunity to play right away), with Murray not being their ONLY choice in this class, that is not a check mark in their favor. Second, they don't have the relationships that UT or A&M have - not a baseball tradition like the Longhorns, or past relationships like Kevin having played at A&M or Strong as a GA at A&M while Kevin was playing. Or any of the other player-relationships that gum up things between the Aggies and Longhorns.
What they do have, though, is one of the top programs in college football that only needs the right quarterback to step in and maintain what was the championship runner up last year. They have better weapons than A&M (certainly played better last year, anyway) on offense and showed they can take a talented quarterback and get him the Heisman and into the playoffs. Oh, and is one of the few places that has better facilities than A&M. If it is all about the football, they are a very real threat. Frankly, if it really is all about the football, then they should be No. 1 because their competition at QB would be with guys Murray should think he could surpass.
If Kyler goes on a visit to Oregon, and knowing the people around him are professionals, I would have to give them a slight edge over A&M.
If not, then we go back to what I said above - on the whole, A&M probably has the better chance to give Murray a platform to make it to the NFL, but UT is not out of the mix by any stretch.
Its going to be fun! Early indicators will be anything that comes out of the in-house meetings with Kyler today and tomorrow, the announcements by Boyd and Hill on Friday, as well as whether Murray travels this weekend. Hold onto your hats!
