Monday, November 17, 2014

Ags, we have problems. Plural.

So, there seems to be a few issues with our football team. No?

While the masses are out there knee-jerking to fire their individual scape goat, why don't we take a moment to actually work though the specific issues and see how we can prioritize a few things.

Let's set aside the defense for a moment. It is in awful shape, no doubt, but also injured beyond belief, and frankly a big issue in an of itself. We will return to it.

On the simple thing, let's start with the special teams. This is one area where things are in pretty good shape. Kickoffs and punt returns have been solid. Kickoffs and punts have also been good. PATs and field goals have been done well.

So now let's look at the offense, step by step.

At quarterback, we have Mr. Hill and Mr. Allen. Both have raw talent, and both have big wins on their belt. But they also have more than one poor performance to their name. Considering the number of options they have, one of them will have to step up. Odds are, all things considered, that Allen will continue on through this season, especially through the LSU game and probably for the bowl game. And there is some real talent there so we probably are as good as we are going to be there.

Running backs. There is more than enough talent here, and more often than not, they try to do the right things. The question here is more how, when and if they are used, which is a separate question.

Wide receivers. Here I have some real concerns. There is tons of talent, no doubt. And the discovery of Josh Reynolds is a fantastic surprise. But Malcome Kennedy has not been the senior leader since his injury in the Arkansas game. Noil has had opportunities, has made some fantastic plays, and will continue to grow, but even he has had a number of dropped passes. After that, though, is where things start to fall off. Ricky Seals-Jones has not been the "match-up nightmare" that was discussed before the season. Cameron Clear also hasn't been anything near what was discussed at the beginning of the year, even accounting for the ankle injury he suffered against South Carolina.

But the biggest concern, for me, is the coaching, from the play calling to the development of players. Where did all the drops come from? Why didn't we develop a vertical passing game after the Carolina match when it was an obvious deficiency, especially considering the team had three games against sub par opponents that they should have been able to have success against. And why in the world has the running game not been a bigger part of the team?

Let's start there. Last year, the talk was we didn't run the ball as much as we should have, especially after Manziel was hurt against Auburn. It was ironic in that McKinney was the running backs coach. Personally, I thought it might have been because he was more focused on the overall offense and taking advantage of Manziel that it kept him from making sure his area of focus was effective.

Then this year, after a successful game by Spavital in the Chic Fil A Bowl, the expectation was there would be more running, yet no. Even though you have a young set of quarterbacks and supposedly a fantastic, experienced, talented offensive line. I would have thought that we would have seen tons of runs out of the spread to take pressure off of the quarterbacks.

And then, nothing. Or very close to it. Nothing to try to establish a base so that you could throw from it.

And that also brings up to me what is the other major concern, beyond the coaching. That is the offensive line. What in the wild wild world of sports is going on here? Starting with the Arkansas game, we ran into team after team who was able to give our offensive line fits. Running or passing, we were not able to pass protect or run block anywhere near as well as we had in previous seasons.

This leads us to a very real problem. In large parts, this offense is designed to operate at a high tempo and put opponents under pressure. We have not operated at a high tempo for more than half of a game in quite a while. If we cannot operate our base offense in a way it was designed to, then what is the issue?

And on top of that, with a defense that is still getting transitioned from the Big XII to the SEC, that high tempo is actually necessary to keep pressure off of it.

That is a LOT of problems, even before we start talking about the actual defense itself. Think about that.

As for the defense itself, there have been bring spots, but injuries have limited or ended their contribution for the year. The biggest success story has clearly been Miles Garrett, setting the Aggie and SEC record for sacks in a season. Deshazor Everett has also played well at times, as has Armani Watts. There have been some other bright spots as well, but most of them have been freshmen in need of experience.

And for long swaths, totally unable to get the big stop, especially against the better teams. The success against Arkansas was in large part due to the Arkansas line getting tired rather than the Aggie defense coming of age. Almost always vulnerable to a deep pass and the run - a fantastically poor combination.

In terms of talent, there is talent on the defensive line, Garrett, Hall, etc. Watts and a few others have shown some real ability as well. But the team sure seems like it is two or three linebackers and two or three secondary players away from being even average. The line probably could use a few more players as well.

But a lot of the fundamentals have been missing - things that should be done better at this stage of the season.

And after all of that, we come to my biggest concern. Yes, I have a bigger concern than the personnel and the play calling and the coaching up.

It is what happened against Alabama. Against Mississippi State, against Ole Miss, we got beat by a better team. And clearly, Alabama is a better team. But then there was the kind of fight we had against State and Ole Miss, including a late game push that made the result more respectable. Against Alabama? Nothing. Zilch. The only time a Kevin Sumlin team has ever been shut out for a whole game.

Yes, in large part, there is a wearing down that occurs when you play Arkansas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and then Alabama. And yes, there was a lot of youth going through that meat grinder. But there was a level of give-up that we had not seen from this team under Kevin Sumlin.

All told, we have a tapestry that is full of problems and a landscape that could be a real problem both for this season and in the future. If this team doesn't win its last two games, there is a very real chance that the current top five recruiting class will  not materialize, opening the door to the other schools we have been able to keep at bay the last few years. Baylor, TCU, UT, OU, Arkansas and, now that they have had a taste of success, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. And LSU, Alabama and Auburn will continue to be a challenge for the top quality players.

So what is the solution? I am not sure. There have been calls to fire Mark Snyder, demote Spavital, and a myriad of other, knee-jerk, shallow responses. That isn't to say that Snyder's dismissal isn't the right move, but there has to be more thought to it, more detail and more analysis.

Clearly, there are issues at the position coach level. It is hopeful dreaming to think that maybe it is as simple as the staff thought they had a better foundation than they actually did and it was too late to go back and try to work on things. My biggest concern is the offensive line - what should have been a strength of this club, even with the graduation of some of the players.

Also, apparently there is a lot of overconfidence with this organization. Swagcopter and all. At some point, that is probably going to have to be dealt with. Frankly, it isn't really very "Aggie" anyway.

From my personal perspective, everything needs to be evaluated. Every player, every coach and every process. And where improvements can be made, make them. While I think it very unlikely that Will Muschamp will come to coach our defense - if for no other reason than apparently his time in Austin left an impression - if there is someone available who can come in and improve the defense, we need to take it seriously. But does that mean we are ready to replace the defensive staff? And what on the offense?

At the end of the day, it  is imperative that we continue the following that we currently have a reputation for:

* recruit well
* develop players for the NFL well
* be better than most college teams

Every loss - whether to LSU or in the bowl game - would have a negative impact on the ability to continue to do that. So there definitely is a need for those currently on board to play as well as possible.

After the LSU game, anything else that can be done to improve things must be considered otherwise we risk losing all the momentum we built up over the past three years.


Friday, November 14, 2014

What next for Texas A&M Football?

So now the reality has to have sunk in for most of us - the Auburn win was fantastic, and rekindles the hope that this thing can become a true beast of the southeast. Throw in the amazing class the men's basketball team put together and it has been a great week for our athletic department.

But the other fact is this - we play again Saturday, and this time it is against another talented team. Setting the opponent aside for a moment, I want to talk about what I think Sumlin and Co. need to do, no matter who the opponent is:

Work. Do work. Every day, consistently.
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Laughing at things like #sliver and #GadgetProgram will only continue as long as the wins against anything other than top ten teams continue.

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This team has shown amazing promise - and it is quite intoxicating. The challenge for this team, though, is appears that the youth have gotten as intoxicated as us in the stands, and that is a problem. Now, part of that run of form between Arkansas and ULM was also a mix of some of the best football teams in the country, a lot on the road, and all in a row. Throw in some rope a dope by the offensive staff in the ULM game and you had the low expectations that came with the start of the Auburn match.

But the worrisome part of that run was also some clear inconsistency of youth that affected work habits and focus. Some of that is on the coaches, but some of that is on the players. Frankly, the coaching staff had done a fantastic job getting this team ready for a big game against the Gamecocks. The players had the blueprint.

Clearly, though, the coaching staff did the necessary work to get this thing back on the rails, and the players bought in, and it was glorious. Frankly, win or lose last week, we had regained our confidence, but to find a way to finish the job was pure excellence. More than any game in Sumlin's career at A&M, that game showed that you better not sleep on the Aggies - no matter how good you are, no matter how many games you have won or who you have beaten, or where the game is held. Except for LSU, Sumlin has shown he can beat anyone, anywhere, anytime.

So now the challenge becomes this - did the players learn from the dip in form and stay focused, or are they back on the high horse? Only they know at this point, but we will find out tomorrow night, make no mistake about it. Why?  Because while many doubt the Mizzou Tigers because of their loss to Indiana, this is a team that can give our refurbished offensive line more trouble than the Auburn Tigres ever could, and they are nowhere near as bad as they are being perceived.

Look at their schedule again. Yes, they had to come back to win at South Carolina - but you know what, they did it. They beat a Florida team that is not as bad as people thought they were - with their defense. Their only ugly loss was to a Georgia team that had just found out their star running back was suspended indefinitely. If there ever was an example of a team stepping up to make up for a missing player, this is it.

So there is very real danger here. Especially if the players didn't get off the ride they were on after beating Auburn. No sir, if the Aggies take the Missouri Tigers for granted, they will lose one of two remaining chances to show that the Auburn game, not the Alabama game, was what represents this team.

Can they get the win? Absolutely. After the way this team played against South Carolina, Arkansas (at times) and Auburn, they showed they have the talent to give anyone a game, anywhere. But as we saw with Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Alabama, the danger of the team not playing at their best is always lurking.

Make no mistake, these may be the two most important games in Aggie history as the team tries to keep the momentum going, and keep together what is currently a top five recruiting class. Continued recruiting excellence is required to be able to just survive in the SEC West, and it is a very slippery slope. Baylor, Oklahoma, now TCU and UTx are always there, nipping at the Aggie's heels, and the fight with LSU, Alabama and Auburn for the very best of Texas and elsewhere will always be there. Hell, now that Ole Miss and Mississippi State have shown they can put together a quality team, they will be chipping away too. And don't sleep on Arkansas. That is a team that is going to continue to press for success, and I wouldn't bet against them turning a corner in the next season or two.

It is only going to get tougher. So every loss is another bullet in the negative recruiting gun. Laughing at things like #sliver and #GadgetProgram will only continue as long as the wins against anything other than top ten teams continue. So do not miss this chance to keep the momentum going, Ags. That means the coaching staff, the players, but also the fans and students. Make sure it is a full house tonight for Midnight Yell, and then for the game tomorrow. And cheer the boys on to a win!

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

What was that? Aggies at Auburn

Uhm, what?

After everyone was convinced that this team was done. Cooked. Any hope for signs of life blew away like dead leaves with the weak win over ULM.

And then a hint of . . . hope? No, not even that. Curios possibility? A flicker? When it sinks in that we ran an incredibly simplified offense. Were we hiding the ball a bit? Or did we need to keep it simple for a terribly gifted but not ready for prime time quarterback?

But then the game against Auburn started and it was like, "Hello gorgeous - where have you been for a month?" That offense that could and would score almost at will was back - with a new driver, of course. But back to scoring points left and right we were.

And the defense was able to get the handful of stops to keep the score leaning the right way, even after they fought back and tied it.

But the back breaker was the blocked field goal. Myles Garrett - being bear hugged like he had been all day - fought through it to make the block and Deshazor took it all the way home to make it 35-17 going into half.

The second half was one of survival. And we did, barely, but we did it nonetheless, and it was glorious.

The questions, though, then started.  How did we go from the first four games to struggling but finding a way to beat Arkansas and then losing three in a row, and then back to the original form?

I am not sure, and I will be scouring the news for information about it. We probably won't know until after Missouri, if not even after Louisiana State. But we certainly can speculate.  Here are a few thoughts.

One - this team got overconfident. For a young team, easy to do. And for a college team, also easy to do (see Oregon, USC, etc.).

Two - the offensive line was attacked and pushed around. Along with other phases, adjustments were made by teams and weaknesses were tested and exploited. And we were not able to make adjustments out of that. Not schematically, not with our personnel. We were driven into the ground, culminating in the 59-0 embarrassment that was Alabama.

Three - we played better teams. No doubt, State, Ole Miss and Alabama were three of the four toughest teams we have faced all year - with Auburn being the fourth. And in a row, that wore us down. And State came into the game off a bye, while we came off the hard game against the Razorbacks. That loss started a few cascades - physical and mental.

The fact that we bounced back is clearly significant. Few teams suffer 59-0 losses to anyone and then beat someone else, on the road, in the top 5 in the country, let alone a team coming off being 13 seconds from the national championship the year before. It was very very impressive.

But now we have a clear contradiction. Are we the team that beat SC and Auburn on the road, or are we the team that broke under the weight of State, Ole Miss and Alabama?

The sad fact is that in the immortal question of whether the glass is half empty or half full, the reality is that it is both.

The challenge for Sumlin and is band of merry men is showing that they can put a little more water in that glass - get a win over Mizzouri, and possibly get one over LSU. Then go to a bowl game and maximize that experience. This team is still young. Seeing some of the youngsters stepping up was really encouraging. What was more encouraging was seeing that the coaching staff had given roles to players willing to fight and play hard. Continue to do that, and the ship will be righted and our beloved Aggies will be back on the road to higher and higher success.

But make no mistake, the danger of the cliff remains. Best of luck to everyone with the Aggie football program. More than at any time over the last three years, the fate of the program hangs in the balance. The reality is this - the high end of the potential is in the balance right now. Slide back, and the recruiting momentum that had once seemed inevitable could be lost...