Ags, we have problems. Plural.

So, there seems to be a few issues with our football team. No?

While the masses are out there knee-jerking to fire their individual scape goat, why don't we take a moment to actually work though the specific issues and see how we can prioritize a few things.

Let's set aside the defense for a moment. It is in awful shape, no doubt, but also injured beyond belief, and frankly a big issue in an of itself. We will return to it.

On the simple thing, let's start with the special teams. This is one area where things are in pretty good shape. Kickoffs and punt returns have been solid. Kickoffs and punts have also been good. PATs and field goals have been done well.

So now let's look at the offense, step by step.

At quarterback, we have Mr. Hill and Mr. Allen. Both have raw talent, and both have big wins on their belt. But they also have more than one poor performance to their name. Considering the number of options they have, one of them will have to step up. Odds are, all things considered, that Allen will continue on through this season, especially through the LSU game and probably for the bowl game. And there is some real talent there so we probably are as good as we are going to be there.

Running backs. There is more than enough talent here, and more often than not, they try to do the right things. The question here is more how, when and if they are used, which is a separate question.

Wide receivers. Here I have some real concerns. There is tons of talent, no doubt. And the discovery of Josh Reynolds is a fantastic surprise. But Malcome Kennedy has not been the senior leader since his injury in the Arkansas game. Noil has had opportunities, has made some fantastic plays, and will continue to grow, but even he has had a number of dropped passes. After that, though, is where things start to fall off. Ricky Seals-Jones has not been the "match-up nightmare" that was discussed before the season. Cameron Clear also hasn't been anything near what was discussed at the beginning of the year, even accounting for the ankle injury he suffered against South Carolina.

But the biggest concern, for me, is the coaching, from the play calling to the development of players. Where did all the drops come from? Why didn't we develop a vertical passing game after the Carolina match when it was an obvious deficiency, especially considering the team had three games against sub par opponents that they should have been able to have success against. And why in the world has the running game not been a bigger part of the team?

Let's start there. Last year, the talk was we didn't run the ball as much as we should have, especially after Manziel was hurt against Auburn. It was ironic in that McKinney was the running backs coach. Personally, I thought it might have been because he was more focused on the overall offense and taking advantage of Manziel that it kept him from making sure his area of focus was effective.

Then this year, after a successful game by Spavital in the Chic Fil A Bowl, the expectation was there would be more running, yet no. Even though you have a young set of quarterbacks and supposedly a fantastic, experienced, talented offensive line. I would have thought that we would have seen tons of runs out of the spread to take pressure off of the quarterbacks.

And then, nothing. Or very close to it. Nothing to try to establish a base so that you could throw from it.

And that also brings up to me what is the other major concern, beyond the coaching. That is the offensive line. What in the wild wild world of sports is going on here? Starting with the Arkansas game, we ran into team after team who was able to give our offensive line fits. Running or passing, we were not able to pass protect or run block anywhere near as well as we had in previous seasons.

This leads us to a very real problem. In large parts, this offense is designed to operate at a high tempo and put opponents under pressure. We have not operated at a high tempo for more than half of a game in quite a while. If we cannot operate our base offense in a way it was designed to, then what is the issue?

And on top of that, with a defense that is still getting transitioned from the Big XII to the SEC, that high tempo is actually necessary to keep pressure off of it.

That is a LOT of problems, even before we start talking about the actual defense itself. Think about that.

As for the defense itself, there have been bring spots, but injuries have limited or ended their contribution for the year. The biggest success story has clearly been Miles Garrett, setting the Aggie and SEC record for sacks in a season. Deshazor Everett has also played well at times, as has Armani Watts. There have been some other bright spots as well, but most of them have been freshmen in need of experience.

And for long swaths, totally unable to get the big stop, especially against the better teams. The success against Arkansas was in large part due to the Arkansas line getting tired rather than the Aggie defense coming of age. Almost always vulnerable to a deep pass and the run - a fantastically poor combination.

In terms of talent, there is talent on the defensive line, Garrett, Hall, etc. Watts and a few others have shown some real ability as well. But the team sure seems like it is two or three linebackers and two or three secondary players away from being even average. The line probably could use a few more players as well.

But a lot of the fundamentals have been missing - things that should be done better at this stage of the season.

And after all of that, we come to my biggest concern. Yes, I have a bigger concern than the personnel and the play calling and the coaching up.

It is what happened against Alabama. Against Mississippi State, against Ole Miss, we got beat by a better team. And clearly, Alabama is a better team. But then there was the kind of fight we had against State and Ole Miss, including a late game push that made the result more respectable. Against Alabama? Nothing. Zilch. The only time a Kevin Sumlin team has ever been shut out for a whole game.

Yes, in large part, there is a wearing down that occurs when you play Arkansas, Mississippi State, Ole Miss and then Alabama. And yes, there was a lot of youth going through that meat grinder. But there was a level of give-up that we had not seen from this team under Kevin Sumlin.

All told, we have a tapestry that is full of problems and a landscape that could be a real problem both for this season and in the future. If this team doesn't win its last two games, there is a very real chance that the current top five recruiting class will  not materialize, opening the door to the other schools we have been able to keep at bay the last few years. Baylor, TCU, UT, OU, Arkansas and, now that they have had a taste of success, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. And LSU, Alabama and Auburn will continue to be a challenge for the top quality players.

So what is the solution? I am not sure. There have been calls to fire Mark Snyder, demote Spavital, and a myriad of other, knee-jerk, shallow responses. That isn't to say that Snyder's dismissal isn't the right move, but there has to be more thought to it, more detail and more analysis.

Clearly, there are issues at the position coach level. It is hopeful dreaming to think that maybe it is as simple as the staff thought they had a better foundation than they actually did and it was too late to go back and try to work on things. My biggest concern is the offensive line - what should have been a strength of this club, even with the graduation of some of the players.

Also, apparently there is a lot of overconfidence with this organization. Swagcopter and all. At some point, that is probably going to have to be dealt with. Frankly, it isn't really very "Aggie" anyway.

From my personal perspective, everything needs to be evaluated. Every player, every coach and every process. And where improvements can be made, make them. While I think it very unlikely that Will Muschamp will come to coach our defense - if for no other reason than apparently his time in Austin left an impression - if there is someone available who can come in and improve the defense, we need to take it seriously. But does that mean we are ready to replace the defensive staff? And what on the offense?

At the end of the day, it  is imperative that we continue the following that we currently have a reputation for:

* recruit well
* develop players for the NFL well
* be better than most college teams

Every loss - whether to LSU or in the bowl game - would have a negative impact on the ability to continue to do that. So there definitely is a need for those currently on board to play as well as possible.

After the LSU game, anything else that can be done to improve things must be considered otherwise we risk losing all the momentum we built up over the past three years.

What next for Texas A&M Football?

So now the reality has to have sunk in for most of us - the Auburn win was fantastic, and rekindles the hope that this thing can become a true beast of the southeast. Throw in the amazing class the men's basketball team put together and it has been a great week for our athletic department.

But the other fact is this - we play again Saturday, and this time it is against another talented team. Setting the opponent aside for a moment, I want to talk about what I think Sumlin and Co. need to do, no matter who the opponent is:

Work. Do work. Every day, consistently.

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Laughing at things like #sliver and #GadgetProgram will only continue as long as the wins against anything other than top ten teams continue.

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This team has shown amazing promise - and it is quite intoxicating. The challenge for this team, though, is appears that the youth have gotten as intoxicated as us in the stands, and that is a problem. Now, part of that run of form between Arkansas and ULM was also a mix of some of the best football teams in the country, a lot on the road, and all in a row. Throw in some rope a dope by the offensive staff in the ULM game and you had the low expectations that came with the start of the Auburn match.

But the worrisome part of that run was also some clear inconsistency of youth that affected work habits and focus. Some of that is on the coaches, but some of that is on the players. Frankly, the coaching staff had done a fantastic job getting this team ready for a big game against the Gamecocks. The players had the blueprint.

Clearly, though, the coaching staff did the necessary work to get this thing back on the rails, and the players bought in, and it was glorious. Frankly, win or lose last week, we had regained our confidence, but to find a way to finish the job was pure excellence. More than any game in Sumlin's career at A&M, that game showed that you better not sleep on the Aggies - no matter how good you are, no matter how many games you have won or who you have beaten, or where the game is held. Except for LSU, Sumlin has shown he can beat anyone, anywhere, anytime.

So now the challenge becomes this - did the players learn from the dip in form and stay focused, or are they back on the high horse? Only they know at this point, but we will find out tomorrow night, make no mistake about it. Why?  Because while many doubt the Mizzou Tigers because of their loss to Indiana, this is a team that can give our refurbished offensive line more trouble than the Auburn Tigres ever could, and they are nowhere near as bad as they are being perceived.

Look at their schedule again. Yes, they had to come back to win at South Carolina - but you know what, they did it. They beat a Florida team that is not as bad as people thought they were - with their defense. Their only ugly loss was to a Georgia team that had just found out their star running back was suspended indefinitely. If there ever was an example of a team stepping up to make up for a missing player, this is it.

So there is very real danger here. Especially if the players didn't get off the ride they were on after beating Auburn. No sir, if the Aggies take the Missouri Tigers for granted, they will lose one of two remaining chances to show that the Auburn game, not the Alabama game, was what represents this team.

Can they get the win? Absolutely. After the way this team played against South Carolina, Arkansas (at times) and Auburn, they showed they have the talent to give anyone a game, anywhere. But as we saw with Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Alabama, the danger of the team not playing at their best is always lurking.

Make no mistake, these may be the two most important games in Aggie history as the team tries to keep the momentum going, and keep together what is currently a top five recruiting class. Continued recruiting excellence is required to be able to just survive in the SEC West, and it is a very slippery slope. Baylor, Oklahoma, now TCU and UTx are always there, nipping at the Aggie's heels, and the fight with LSU, Alabama and Auburn for the very best of Texas and elsewhere will always be there. Hell, now that Ole Miss and Mississippi State have shown they can put together a quality team, they will be chipping away too. And don't sleep on Arkansas. That is a team that is going to continue to press for success, and I wouldn't bet against them turning a corner in the next season or two.

It is only going to get tougher. So every loss is another bullet in the negative recruiting gun. Laughing at things like #sliver and #GadgetProgram will only continue as long as the wins against anything other than top ten teams continue. So do not miss this chance to keep the momentum going, Ags. That means the coaching staff, the players, but also the fans and students. Make sure it is a full house tonight for Midnight Yell, and then for the game tomorrow. And cheer the boys on to a win!

What was that? Aggies at Auburn

Uhm, what?

After everyone was convinced that this team was done. Cooked. Any hope for signs of life blew away like dead leaves with the weak win over ULM.

And then a hint of . . . hope? No, not even that. Curios possibility? A flicker? When it sinks in that we ran an incredibly simplified offense. Were we hiding the ball a bit? Or did we need to keep it simple for a terribly gifted but not ready for prime time quarterback?

But then the game against Auburn started and it was like, "Hello gorgeous - where have you been for a month?" That offense that could and would score almost at will was back - with a new driver, of course. But back to scoring points left and right we were.

And the defense was able to get the handful of stops to keep the score leaning the right way, even after they fought back and tied it.

But the back breaker was the blocked field goal. Myles Garrett - being bear hugged like he had been all day - fought through it to make the block and Deshazor took it all the way home to make it 35-17 going into half.

The second half was one of survival. And we did, barely, but we did it nonetheless, and it was glorious.

The questions, though, then started.  How did we go from the first four games to struggling but finding a way to beat Arkansas and then losing three in a row, and then back to the original form?

I am not sure, and I will be scouring the news for information about it. We probably won't know until after Missouri, if not even after Louisiana State. But we certainly can speculate.  Here are a few thoughts.

One - this team got overconfident. For a young team, easy to do. And for a college team, also easy to do (see Oregon, USC, etc.).

Two - the offensive line was attacked and pushed around. Along with other phases, adjustments were made by teams and weaknesses were tested and exploited. And we were not able to make adjustments out of that. Not schematically, not with our personnel. We were driven into the ground, culminating in the 59-0 embarrassment that was Alabama.

Three - we played better teams. No doubt, State, Ole Miss and Alabama were three of the four toughest teams we have faced all year - with Auburn being the fourth. And in a row, that wore us down. And State came into the game off a bye, while we came off the hard game against the Razorbacks. That loss started a few cascades - physical and mental.

The fact that we bounced back is clearly significant. Few teams suffer 59-0 losses to anyone and then beat someone else, on the road, in the top 5 in the country, let alone a team coming off being 13 seconds from the national championship the year before. It was very very impressive.

But now we have a clear contradiction. Are we the team that beat SC and Auburn on the road, or are we the team that broke under the weight of State, Ole Miss and Alabama?

The sad fact is that in the immortal question of whether the glass is half empty or half full, the reality is that it is both.

The challenge for Sumlin and is band of merry men is showing that they can put a little more water in that glass - get a win over Mizzouri, and possibly get one over LSU. Then go to a bowl game and maximize that experience. This team is still young. Seeing some of the youngsters stepping up was really encouraging. What was more encouraging was seeing that the coaching staff had given roles to players willing to fight and play hard. Continue to do that, and the ship will be righted and our beloved Aggies will be back on the road to higher and higher success.

But make no mistake, the danger of the cliff remains. Best of luck to everyone with the Aggie football program. More than at any time over the last three years, the fate of the program hangs in the balance. The reality is this - the high end of the potential is in the balance right now. Slide back, and the recruiting momentum that had once seemed inevitable could be lost...

Game Grades - Aggies at Mississippi State

Sorry about not doing grades for the Arkansas game. Had some work come up that really ate into my time to write. But the signs of concern were there that blossomed into full bloom in this game. Very disappointing.

As an added benefit, at the bottom are my notes for the game, generally play by play.

Overall - D. Mississippi State is a really good team, to be sure. But we made mistake after mistake and looked unready for the moment. Juxtaposing this with South Carolina is a bit surprising until you look at how young this team is. But that doesn't mean we can excuse all of those mistakes. A lot of players are doing the right things, and teammates are letting them down.

Overall Defense - C. Why a C, do you ask? Because they made State earn their touchdowns, and got a stop on their second drive. Their role on this team has always been to get more stops than the opposition, and they did that. Until the second interception, they did what has been asked of them.

DL - C+. They did what they could, for as long as they could, and took advantage of State mistakes when they happened. This unit is not where we want them to be, but they are doing what they can.

LB - C. Like the line, did what they could, but not as effective.

DB - F. DeVante Harris, we were reminded how you can be picked on. Not good.

Special team - B. Until did what they could, including giving the team a short field to take the lead again after the game was tied 7-7. No issues with extra points, field goals, punts or kickoffs. The return unit, especially on punt returns, has made a few not-so-smart decisions in terms of when to catch the ball in close to the goal line.

Overall Offense - F. This team is predicated on the idea of continued success from the offense. I think this is one of the worst performances the Aggies have had on offense under Sumlin. Other than the first drive, none of their success happened when the game was winnable. By the time they did start making plays, the defense was too tired to get the stops they needed.

OL - C+. For enough of the game, the OL got Hill the protection he needed. This wasn't the Arkansas game where the opposing DL was pressuring Hill from the get go. The Aggies had seven drives where there was little or no pressure on Hill, and the little there was usually was something Hill could run for yardage from.

RBs - C. They did what was asked of them. Each made more than what they got from the line on most of their runs.

WRs - F. Yes, we will get to Hill in a moment, but often enough, the passes that were a bit off, a bit high, a bit fast still hit you in the hands, guys. You have to make those catches. The loss of confidence cascade starts with you. How much of the problems were routes and decisions by the WRs v. decisions and execution by the QB is not entirely clear, but the fact that so many WRs are dropping the ball makes me think that it is more likely more with the signal-caller than the receivers. But make no mistake, if it hits you in the hands, you have to find a way to haul that in - you share in the responsibility.

WB - F. Kenny Trill, he was not. Hill had more than enough time to make the right reads and the right throws. Too often the throw was off, or too hard. Somehow, someway, this has to be fixed and fast because Ole Miss has a heck of a defense and they are coming to get you. After that it is Alabama. And off date and a game against Louisiana Monroe follow before Auburn. Not sure how it happens, but you and your receivers have GOT to get on the same page. You ARE this offense, which means you ARE this team, especially right now.

Coaching - F. This unit, that was so ready to play South Carolina, was not mentally ready for this one. The Aggies didn't get beat because the other team was better, they got beat because they made mistakes that didn't need to be made. Play calling I think was good enough, but resolving the drops from the Arkansas game didn't happen - it got worse, and it didn't stop. The drops and mis-reads have been a problem since the Carolina match so it wasn't as if we didn't know the issue was there. Fix this folks, or it is going to get real ugly real fast on the field.


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First drive – a few passes dropped. Poor routes or poor throws? Not a question of OL, getting good protection. Success with short yardage run.

First drive by MS – pretty much had their way.

Second drive – they have picked up on WR dump pass behind the line, are crashing it. Still no issues with OL protection. Third down throw was open, poor throw.

More great special teams play – underrated. Should have been a difference in the game.

Third drive (short field) – 1^st down run – MS got some penetration.  2^nd down, another high throw. 3^rd down, good protection, good pass, good catch under pressure, poor spot? 4^th – good penetration by defense.

Second drive by MS – got the stop.

Fourth drive – good early run. 2^nd down, pass play, starting to get a little pressure, but good pass, good catch, good RAC. Ok early run, 2^nd and 7 – great protection, but couldn’t find someone so ran for 1^st. Four yards on WR screen, good coverage by defense but it was a productive play. 2^nd down – again good protection. Throw wide, good throw, dropped. 3^rd – good protection again, throw into a little traffic, hit hands but dropped under pressure.

Third drive by MS – 2 yard run. 2^nd down, no pressure, good pass v Harris. 1^st down – forced a scramble for a yard. 2^nd – good run wide. 3^rd and short – can’t get to Prescott before he gets first on QB run. Good pass. Again on DeVante Harris. Throw to the flat to the 2 yard line. Power run for td.

Fifth drive – good draw play. Bad catch on snap, throws off timing of play, runs for 6 (needed 2). 1^st – good protection, quick throw, got 5. High snap, D got some penetration. 3^rd and 7 – flushed, threw low under pressure.

Fourth drive by MS – methodical.

Sixth drive – good draw play on 1^st down. Good rollout on 2^nd and 3 – pass to Neiderhofer. Still great protection, again to Neiderhofer for 9. Again, good protection on quick pass. Again good protection, but throw too hard. 2^nd and 10 – protection broke down, good scramble for 12. Run play, DL beat it but Williams fought to make it a positive play. Another good protection, another throw to open receiver. Again, good protection, Neiderhofer has ball bounce off him to be intercepted as he was having to adjust to a throw behind him.

Big concerns now. They score here and it is big trouble.

Fifth drive by MS – Burns took advantage of a bobbled catch to force a fumble, Harris recovers and we have a chance…

Seventh drive – just a little pressure and Hill throws another interception. Looked like he was throwing to Neiderhofer again with two guys near him.

Ballgame.

I'm confused...

If I am wrong, tell me, but I keep reading about how the A&M defense was the worst in the SEC last year as we prepare for tomorrow's game against Arkansas.

How in the wide wide world of sports is that at all relevant when we have the game against South Carolina to show us that this defense can be effective against a team that has a good offensive line and wants to run the ball?

Now, is Arkansas better than Carolina at running? Absolutely. But football like most sports is a dynamic game. Rarely is one aspect of a game so strong that it obliterates the relevance of other areas.

In this case, are people really thinking that a passing offense that has not been super efficient against lesser opponents (other than Auburn) is going to all of a sudden come to life? In my (albeit somewhat cursory) review of their games against Tech and NIU, I did not see things that made me think they can pull off consistent, penetrating play action against the TAMU defense even if Matthews or Raven or Watts is moved forward to help contain the run. Now, if I am wrong about that, it could be quite a game. But from what I have read and seen, I am relatively confident that won't be the case.

But even if that is true, it would take the Aggie offense sputtering for this not to turn into an oddball shootout where we are passing and they are running. Is it possible? Yes. But I haven't seen anything from the Arkansas defense to make me think they have the personnel to get a pass rush against our offensive line, or have the personnel to keep up with our vast array of receiver options. Frankly, this is where I think A&M has an advantage over almost every school in the FBS - wide receiver depth that is eight, nine, ten players deep. As one ESPN pundit said, "Every time I turn around, another new Aggie reviever has caught a pass for a touchdown." I mean, Niederhofer? NIEDERHOFER?

Honestly, I love the guy and what he represents. Loved the story on him earlier this week, too. But it makes a point that Sumlin and Co. can take a walk on and get him that productive. He has made some plays. Can he do it against a top 30 team like Arkansas? We will see, but he looked better than most of the SMU receivers who are scholarshipped.

I do think this part of what people are saying is accurate - the most efficient offense will win. I just look at match-ups and don't see how their average defense will stop our high octane offense more than our average (in places - in other places, not so much) defense will stop their powerful offense. Just penalties alone make me think that the Arkansas offense will hiccup enough for the Aggies to win.

That being said, this brings us back to the concern I had a few days ago. We are dangerous as long as we are running well. Was the composure we saw against Carolina just getting up for one big game, or is it something we can replicate? As we have seen with other programs just this season, consistency at a high level is rare and difficult to maintain, so I can see where we have a few of our own hiccups. Like RSJ's dropped pass, or the penalties, in the first quarter against SMU. We can afford that against the Ponies. Against the Hogs, that could change the complexion of the game.

But therein lies the advantage we have. An off game from Hill is unlikely - apparently his dad has really helped him have professional level composure. An off game from the OL is also unlikely. Depth will ensure that if one player is having a tough day, someone else will step up. Same for the running backs and receivers. We are four deep at running back. That is sick. We are now ten deep at wide receiver. That is absurd. A competitive performance atmosphere will ensure that the players on the field are focused, organized and effective. It really is magnificent.

On defense, we also have depth across the defensive line and good enough players at the next two levels that unless we have a complete Auburn 2013 meltdown, Snyder will find the right moment to stall enough of their drives to give A&M the victory.

Again, I have read as much as I can, and watched Arkansas' games. Where am I off here? Are the Hogs' wide receivers as good as Carolina's? (For what it is worth, I do think Allen is better than Thompson.) Or is Arkansas's defense better than I am giving them credit?

The more I look at it, though, the more I think I have it dialed in. Too many people have images of last year's defense in their head and don't recognize that Snyder not only has better players, he has depth, especially along the defensive line. Even after this defense made Carolina look below average (a Gamecocks team that went on to beat a pretty good East Carolina team and some team from Georgia...) on offense. I mean, the line last week on the SMU game was 32. It took us a HALF to get that margin. No, I don't think that Vegas has a handle on this club yet.

But like I said at the start, if I'm wrong, tell me.

Aggies v. Arkansas - specific matchups

I was able to watch the Arkansas-Northern Illinois game and had previously watched the Ark-TT and Ark-Auburn matches, so here are some quick hits on the various match-ups.

Razorback running game v. Aggie defense will be a challenge. No doubt there. This is the thing everyone is focusing on as it was such a huge challenge for the guys last year and will be a big challenge this year. But let's bear in mind that Carolina was supposed to have a great running game, even without Davis. How exactly did that work out again? Again, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth and the Aggie version of that is our offense. Any separation will force Arkansas to pass, which leads us to...

Razorback passing game v. Aggie defense will be at worst a draw.  Why? Their WRs are not good - certainly not as good as Carolina's. And while the Arkansas OL will probably do better than Carolina's, the overall advantage will still point to the TAMU sideline. Yes, Allen is a good quarterback, but if the WRs aren't running good routes (and they haven't) or making catches (they have at times, others not so much), you could have Peyton Manning back there and it wouldn't matter. If the Aggies can open up the game and get into their style of match, that is really going to hurt Arkansas' chances.

Arkansas return game v. Aggie kickoff and punt units. There is certainly danger here. Arkansas started the game v NIU with a return for a TD. TAMU has been good at coverage and their kickers have put the ball in the right spots, but they will need to continue to do so, otherwise they could open themselves up to a real problem.

Aggie return game v. Arkansas kickoff and punt units. Without Noil, the Aggies are good but not any more dangerous than Arkansas. These two areas are probably going to be a push.

Both teams are also good in kicking extra points and field goals.

Aggie passing game v. Razorback pass defense. There are some real absurdly bad numbers out there, especially on 3rd and short, for the Arkansas defense. It plays right into the strength of the Aggie offense. Unless there are some statistical anomalies here - which is possible - this is where TAMU is going to really hurt Arkansas' ability to get them off the field. Remember how the Aggies moved the ball methodically rather than vertically against Carolina? Like that, although I do expect Arkansas' defense to be possibly more effective than Carolina's was, although the TAMU passing game has only improved, including the addition of some vertical success.

Aggie running game v. Razorback defense. It is here, though, that the Aggies are the most under-appreciated. Between the play calling of Spavital and the effectiveness when they go to it, the TAMU running attack is lethal. I, for one, love seeing the team pass, pass, pass, ohh a run, pass, pass, pass, maybe another run, pass pass and the next thing you know, we are inside the 5 and we bring in the power running game or the option running game and a gassed defense has nothing left to really put into defending it, and it is church. I saw nothing from Arkansas in their games to indicate they can prevent this from happening.

I do think that when the Aggie play elite teams like Alabama and Auburn, and possibly LSU (at the end of the year, they will have worked out some things and could get back to elite level), Mississippi State (although I am not sure just yet) and Ole Miss (at least their defense is surely elite), this dynamic will change. But against good to lesser teams, they won't be able to handle the pressure that the offense puts them under. Like Coach Boone said, "Like Novocaine, give it time, it always works." And while Arkansas is clearly a good team, they are not an elite team.

Granted, the Arkansas running game is absolutely a punch in the mouth, one that we will need to see how the Aggies react to. But unless they lose their composure, TAMU will find a way to have their success on the offensive side of the ball and the defense needs to just make a handful of stops. Here is where I trust Mark Snyder. He has time and again - especially at Alabama in 2012, and a handful of times last year (including against Arkansas) found a way to win the chess match at a key point. I loved how we won the Duke game with defense there at the end, for example. And I have loved seeing what Snyder can do with a real set of players on defense this year, and am giddy about the idea of adding to that for next year and beyond.

So looking beyond this game, I do see where the Aggies might be challenged by a better defense (Ole Miss, Alabama, maybe Mississippi State, LSU, Missouri) or an equally good offense (have you seen what Alabama is doing?, Auburn, Missouri) and that will determine how far our team can go. But for this game, no matter how hard Arkansas hits the Aggies in the mouth with the running game, it is only one area, and in the other areas, the Razorbacks are just too deficient. I have the Aggies winning 45-31 after it being close in the first quarter and a half.

Let's talk Arkansas

So the next opponent for our Fightin' Texas Aggies are the Arkansas Razorbacks, a team that for a good portion of recent history was that No. 3 team in the West that challenged two of the top three that usually was Alabama, Auburn and LSU, and sometimes challenged for the conference as a whole.

In other words, what A&M has been since joining the SEC.

In a lot of ways, 2012 was the perfect storm for Aggie success. Auburn was in an epic collapse. Flat out epic. And Arkansas had their own degeneration to deal with. Two established and quality programs were at an all time low in terms of their ability to play football.

Auburn fixed its problems quickly. The right coach took what remained of some really high levels of talent and put them right back in the mix, winning the SEC and coming 13 seconds away from winning the sixth straight national championship for the state of Alabama.

Arkansas, not so much. When Petrino spit the bit on that back road on his motorcycle and his girlfriend, he threw the entire Razorback organization into the gutter, and while they made a quality move, it was a significant move in a new direction that was going to take some time to gain traction.

Well, you are seeing that Arkansas team showing some of that traction now. Granted, it probably isn't enough yet to challenge for the division or the conference, but from what we have seen so far, they are going to make all of the top four teams (currently, Alabama, Auburn, our Aggies and Mississippi State) earn their wins, and the other two better watch out otherwise they will end up losing to the revitalized Arkies. Obviously, Auburn has already shown they can beat the Razorbacks, but that game showed the danger that Arkansas brings. A quality running game and a good, but not great, defense.

And I really really wish I hadn't deleted that game so I could go back and watch it in more detail because I think there are a lot of similarities to how the Aggies and the War Eagle Tigers play. I do think that Auburn is slightly better than A&M - mostly in terms of depth of experience and a developed roster after bringing back much of last year's team - but the Aggies are close enough both in terms of style and talent that it is a good analog. 

On the other hand, I think Arkansas has really improved since their opening match against Auburn. The have figured out how to maximize their runnning game and have developed their passing game more.

So add it all up and it seems like we have a pretty competitive game coming up. One that the Aggies should win, but it will be close enough that we need to bring the same focus we brought to the Carolina match, and we need to execute. Turnovers and penalties will the path to letting the Razorbacks into the game, hence my concerns that I wrote about yesterday.

And I have one other big concern, that is in some ways a larger umbrella version of what I wrote yesterday. Is this team as composed as it was against Carolina in all big games, and the games v. Lamar, Rice and SMU were just difficult to bring the same focus because the opponents were just not that challenging? Or did we play our best game of the year, and now we will have to work to get back to that level of play?

I think it is a fair question, but I think if you look at the actual results under Sumlin, you have rarely seen the team out of sorts, other than the two games at the end of last season that I think we can chalk a lot up to Manziel's injury and the fact that we went all in on "we have the best player in the game, let's give him room to succeed." But in so many other big games, we were never really out coached or out prepared. We were sharp and eager to play, rarely making the mistakes that cost you matches.

So the information we have in front of us - for this game and beyond - points to a consistent level of focus that will give us the best chance to win all of those games. The small sample size, and the fact that every team is new, especially in terms of senior leadership, and this team is so young. SO young.... That I will have some butterflies for pretty much every remaining game this season (other than ULM).

But this is what we wanted, right? When we signed up for this move to the SEC - we wanted to play the best to be the best? Okay then. Let's get after it then! Would not have it any other way. 

In Sumlin we Trust!

The University of Texas (at Austin) and their delusional mentality

"Texas QB Tyrone Swoopes said he, "expects to be in the College Football Playoff." This year, he said. "We have the talent to do it." With two losses? He said yes." - @kbohls (Kirk Bohls, senior writer for the Austin American Statesman)

Let me start with this - I have a lot of friends who went to and/or are fans of the Texas Longhorns. For them, to a large degree, I say this with some sadness. And actually, as I will explain below, for Aggies as well. There are so many people who are good people, good fans of the sport, who should not be colored by the mentality that is dragging down their football program. And as a citizen of Texas, I want to see all Texas football teams do well - yes, including TCU, Texas Tech, Baylor, etc. I love what is happening at UTSA. I was happy to see Rice win CUSA last year.

But there are enough that are not like that, that it just has to be said - the delusional perception that "We're Texas, we should get the best players because of who we are, and we should win national championships because of who we are" is just . . . frankly, pathetic. It is a large reason that many don't like or even hate the Longhorns.

This may sound odd coming from an Aggie, but I actually don't hate the Longhorns. I cheered for Ricky Williams and Vince Young. I want them to be as good as they can be. Why? Well, one, hate just isn't a good thing. But two, the better UT-Austin is, the better football in the state of Texas is, and ultimately, the better football in the state of Texas is, the better the Aggies are going to be. I would love to see UT-Austin get back to being great and to have the Aggies play them on Thanksgiving. It would be phenomenal. For the same reason that I loved the Aggies going to the SEC, playing Alabama and LSU, etc. Play the best to be the best. Learn from conflict, grow. I am not surprised by the level of success the Aggies have had in recruiting since going to the SEC.

So I don't hate them, although I do get frustrated by Longhorns, especially when you look at all they have at their disposal, add in the arrogance that seems institutional and reflected in many of the university's actions, and you have quite a mix.

In the same way that Cowboys' fans are frustrated with Jerry Jones, you have an organization that has more resources than any other team out there, yet you squander that advantage by being self-centered and assured of your own greatness. In terms of the Cowboys - you are in a league with a hard salary cap. So why aren't you spending all of that extra money on the best coaching, scouting and facilities out there? Why are you basically operating without a general manager or a real coach? The two most important leadership positions in an NFL team and you have emasculated them both. By the way, this is nothing new. One of the issues Jimmy Johnson had with Jerry Jones was the lack of resources being put to the scouting efforts....

So here sits UT-Austin, with the most revenue of any team out there, a 100,000 seat stadium in a city that they own. Their ratings potential is always fantastic. Yet they let Mack Brown run out of quality assistant coaches and the institutional rot that follows is epic. The fact that Oklahoma has almost double the amount of national championships as UT-Austin ought to be reason alone to get Longhorns of their collective butts to make things happen. Granted, Oklahoma is very very good, but if you compare assets, it isn't even close.

Now in comes Charlie Strong. He is trying to do the right things and get them back to being a football team. As I said above, I personally hope he has success in turning the program around. I would love for it to be enough that they would be willing to play the Aggies on Thanksgiving again, and for that to be the penultimate college football game, overshadowing the Iron Bowl, etc. Yes, I will admit, in large part, I think that A&M is so far ahead of UT-Austin that no matter how much catching up they do, they won't surpass us. Even with the resources, revenue, etc., the Big XII is no comparison to the SEC. Again, play the best to be the best, and sorry charlie, but no one is going to get excited about your NFL prospects watching you play Iowa State.

The nice thing is this. It doesn't matter. The Fightin' Texas A&M Aggies are going to be fine, one way or the other. We have found a home where our unique passion for the game is not mocked, but embraced. And our team has risen to a level where we have never been before, and things are only going to get better. (I have visions of the games against Oregon in '18 and '19...)

But it does hurt my heart a little that challenging ourselves against a good team in the Longhorns just is not possible right now.

Quick footnote - as you may have surmised, there certainly things that some Longhorns have done in the past that I do hate. The arrogant dismissiveness towards other schools, obviously including A&M, is one. Efforts to have the school turned into a mental institution, for example. But the way the Longhorns generally responded - especially the Longhorn band - to the Bonfire Tragedy, really made it clear to me that there are a lot of really good people who are Longhorns, and they and their school deserve some respect. So Charlie, Dustin, Eric, Nissa, and many others, for you and those like you, I really do wish the Longhorns would do well.

As we start SEC play again, some concerns

As I wrote in my Game Grades, I have a very big concern that came from the game on Saturday. I also have some others in general for this team. I doubt I am bringing up anything the team isn't working on, and I have faith that they will address them, but let me share.

Saturday - that start to the game was unsettling. Over-hyped to play SMU? We have to be more professional than that. In fact, a lot of people were giving us a lot of credit for the South Carolina win because we weren't too hyped up - we were focused, prepared and locked in. On Saturday, we were anything but. Color me not a fan.

On top of the penalties, we just didn't start well, and that is something this team cannot afford. That first drive touchdown is something that really sets a tone for the teams, and is a huge part of Sumlin's success over the years. We *HAVE* to maintain that, and we weren't able to against SMU? Now I will give SMU some credit - it appeared they came out well prepared and were firing at full speed, but do you really think Arkansas is not going to do that, with better athletes?

As far as conference play, I do think that any team we can get ahead of, we should be able to beat. And the defenses that I see being able to really match us hat for hat is Alabama and Ole Miss. Auburn is the lone exception because their offense is the one unit that I think can go toe to toe with us. ASSUMING WE PLAY OUR BEST. Again, a start like SMU and we are in a deep hole against a few other teams. After Saturday's game in Death Valley, I have to put State in the conversation as well. My sense is that LSU made some mistakes that gave them belief, and they aren't what they have been over the past few years (too many exits for the NFL over too many years has, I think, finally caught up with them), so I am not sure that Mississippi State just beat THAT LSU squad, but they certainly showed they have a competitive defense and a good offense. And we don't know a lot about Arkansas' defense other than they got blown out by Auburn in the first week and they have been good against average to below average teams since.

I am worried about teams that can really run the ball, including Arkansas. In the traditional race of offensive styles, the ability to run the ball has been one to counteract a high powered passing game, and if anyone can do it in the SEC, right now it is Arkansas (and Alabama). Again, why scoring first is so important as it will force them to pass the ball. For what it is worth, I felt that the LSU game last year really drove home for me that the way we play offense is as much about defense as it is about our own offense. Scoring like crazy allows a less skilled defense to simplify the playbook and get after certain areas. It is why when we couldn't move the ball against LSU last year, we were in big trouble. I can see that happening against Arkansas, Ole Miss, State, Alabama, Auburn and possibly LSU and even Mizzou if they get their young guys coached up enough.

That is pretty much all of our remaining games. Fun!

But that is the thing, now we are in a challenge every week, and this team relishes a challenge, and I think Sumlin and the staff has worked hard to get them ready for that gauntlet. It is one of the things that I really respect from this team - the old adage about the team never quitting has never been more true than with this club. You don't go 12-2 on the road in the SEC without the ability to consistently bring your A game - and as we saw the last two weeks, that is a very difficult thing to do in college football (looking at you, Southern Cal, and Mizzou, and Virginia Tech and Georgia).

So yes, I am very excited about the rest of this season. Lots of talent - although not as much as we will have next year, or the year after - and the confidence that they have the tools to be the better team in every game they play. Frankly, I think the schedule works out really well for us - we are getting the three middle teams right now, where we can show that we can out-talent them. Those games can prepare us for our two toughest games against Alabama and Auburn on the road. Then we finish with teams that, if we make it through these next five, should be games we can win. Oh yes, it is all in front of us now.

I leave you with this - the next two games will determine whether this team really is in the top third of the SEC. Arkansas will be a great test, and Mississippi State on the road will tell us if we still area ahead of the middle of the pack teams. Beat State on the road, and we should be able to beat Ole Miss at home. Should be fun!

Game grades - Aggies at SMU

This is going to be short because, frankly, SMU is just awful and that was a glorified scrimmage. In some ways, I think Lamar was more competitive, at least in terms of effort and system.

Because I think it will set a tone, let's start here:

Overall - B. This was an ok effort by a team that had one last chance to really rev up before playing in the toughest division college football has ever seen (not hyperbole, folks. Check it out. This is not a good thing. Google is your friend). We will see details below, but there were some things from this that did not sit well with me. Not something that I am ringing alarm bells over, mind you, but things that raise an eyebrown and gets a hard "let's not do that again, we should be better than that" look.

QB - B. Hill threw his first interception, but ran for an almost touchdown when a play broke down. I did really like that he threw the deep ball well near the end of the first half for a touchdown. Allen was good but not great. Possibly unfairly, but I am putting some of the early mistakes on Hill here. Especially with his position and his own clear ability to handle the moment, he is one of the tone setters and overall leaders on the team, and the early penalties and mistakes are a concern.

RB - B. Brandon - seriously? Not the way to start the game. Overall, very good again, and efficient for so much of the game.

WR - B. RSJ - same thing as Brandon. That was not good. Overall, though, good effort.

OL - A. Once again, we could run at will and Hill had all the time in the world to pass. Love this unit.

DL - A. Eight sacks is really good. Wish Myles would have found a way to beat a double-team, but that is part of the growing process - now he has to adjust.

LB - B. I cannot put into words how happy I was to see Jordan Mastrogiovanni and Shaan Waashington back. This is a unit that is going to be severely tested over seven of the next eight games and we need every capable player back.

DBs - B. A few breakdowns again. I know they are going to happen, but against this team, we should be able to mask them more than we did. It was good to see De'Vante Harris back. That depth will be important.

Coaching/scheme - B. The use of returning players and keeping players fresh was well handled. Giving Allen time with the first OL was good. I put the early game jitters and mistakes, though, on everyone who committed them or should have had a hand in leadership, so this is on them a bit. We have one game left where we *might* be able to get away with a start like that (ULM) and hopefully the staff can use this to make that point, but it was not good to see.

I thought about going into the start of the game a bit more here, but with such a big game coming up, I think I am going to put it in its own piece so look for that later. Suffice to say, though, this team has a defense that needs the breathing room of a lead. Surely it is better, but not good enough to survive the SEC West. This team cannot afford a start like Saturday's in any of their conference games.

Aggies v. SMU - What to expect, what to hope for

Similar to the Rice game, today your Fightin' Texas Aggies are taking on an overmatched foe - possibly the most unbalanced matchup in the FBS this season.

But there are things that I defintiely hope to see today because this is the last game we have to work out the kinks before we dive into the meat of our schedule - and there is a LOT of meat to it. Obviously, Alabama, Auburn and LSU are big challenges, but I get the sense that Mizzou is going to be a lot closer to the team that won the SEC East last year than people expect, and the Mississippi schools are better in a lot of ways this season. But we start the run next week against Arkansas, and if you saw what they did to Texas Tech, you know that they have some heavy artillery to bring to the fight.

So the more we can fix and figure out against the Ponies the better.

Clearly, there are things that are running at peak efficiency right now: both lines, the wide receivers, the running backs, special teams. I hope to see that continue and hopefully we can develop depth for those units that will be necessary as we wade through the gauntlett that is the SEC West.

At quarterback, I think there is so much right here that it is pretty easy to note what needs to be improved - the vertical game. You have to give Hill a TON of credit to this point (along with the coaching staff). He has been miles ahead of what even the most optimistic thought coming into the season. But that deep ball - the timing and execution just isn't there. So let's work on that as much as possible before the score gets too out of hand. I also want to see Kyle Allen really get some reps and settle in as a quality backup. After the Rice game, I have some concerns...

The rest of the defense also needs work. The linebackers and secondary need to find their regular starters and their regular starters need to settle into their assignments and tackle better, fast, because Arkansas is going to be that punch in the mouth that Mike Tyson always talked about, and then it gets harder.  How is that for perspective?

I love Watts, Everett, Garrett, Hall and so much of the DL. And we aren't talking about an awful defense (in large part to those players). But the better we can get now, the better we will be when we don't have time to improve.

Injuries - this is a touchy one. If someone is probable, to the extent that we can get them some reps without risking their health, I say do it to the amount that would help their timing, then get them out of there. If there is any chance that players like Mastrogivanni or Clear could re-injure something and we really don't need to see them today, hold them back. Obviously, only the coaching staff knows what that looks like, but those are the principles I hope they are using.

Overall, what I really hope to see is an improvement in focus. Last week, some of the focus wasn't there. Hopefully this week we have a bit better level there.

College Realignment - The Next Evolution?

I saw a discussion about who would be a better candidate as an expansion target, assuming that there is another round - Baylor or Texas Tech. It is an interesting question, although one that appears to be academic because of a few variables, not the least of which is the inability of the Pac-12 to put a good network product together. 

As a quick aside on that, I get wanting to keep all revenue, and I get trying the current "all or nothing" model, but in the wake of the success of the SEC Network, trying to charge the same for people in Florida as California seems rather nose/face, no?

But it did spark a thought that I figured I would drop on this blog real quick. But let me establish a premise or two first. To start with, this is an idea I am kicking around.  PLEASE comment below if you have insights, corrections, thoughts, clarifications, etc. on any of this. I am sure there are so many moving parts that there is information I do not have, or don't have accurately enough, that you dear reader can help us with. Additionally, please review the "assumptions" section below as some of them may help you understand where this is going.

The Overview

So there will most likely be another round of conference realignment, in large part due to the new haves/have-somes/have-nots dynamics since the SEC Network's successful launch. Now you have the SEC as the king of the hill, the B1G a step behind, then a gap, then the ACC and Big XII, and then a larger gap, and then the rest. 

What makes things interesting is that now you have enough revenue in the SEC to have an ACC or Big XII school jump ship to the SEC and make the same or better money in the SEC *while paying the Grant of Rights penalty* for exiting their current conference. (It appears that the ACC and Big XII teams are currently making +/-$20M currently, and in the SEC or B1G, they would make close to or more than $40M.)

If true, that would mean that if the SEC or B1G wanted to expand their footprint a little more, they can do it without significant obstruction.

So that leads us to a few basic assumptions before we dive into the details.

Assumptions and Background

First, it is all about the benjamins. And in this context, that means millions of dollars at a pop, and how to get them. This is NOT about maintaining historical rivalries, although I do think that some sort of reality check on travel might play into the discussions a bit. I mean, West Virginia in the Big XII has to be costing all of those programs way too much money, time and quality. But this is about eyeballs in stadiums for revenue sports that generate revenue for in-stadium and television events.

Second, ESPN and Fox are going to try to keep their properties as much as possible. ESPN with the ACC and the LHN, and Fox with the Big XII. This may be a huge sticking point we may have to revisit, especially considering that the LHN is ESPN and Fox is the main partner for the Big XII overall. That is very much a huge conflict.

Third, the gulf between the SEC/B1G and the Big XII/ACC is not something that UT, OU, Notre Dame, Florida State or others are willing to stomach long term. This is a point I could very well be wrong about, and you could only see the defection of a few schools from the ACC to fill out the ACC and we are done.

Fourth, the past efforts of the B1G and SEC to play footsie with UNC, Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, etc.

And yes, this ignores the Pac-12 as I think they have painted themselves into a corner that they can't get out of. Also, in part, because the LHN was successful at one thing - keeping UTx out of the hands of Fox and in the ESPN family.

The Theory

Find a way to create a conference or arrangement that raises as many boats as possible. Can it be done? I am not sure, but this is my best guess for now. It does involve moving a few teams around, involving five different conferences.

I - The Heavies Who Stay

Let's start with the key players. These are the teams that are going to push for this because they won't make enough money to keep up with the SEC otherwise: OU, Notre Dame, Florida State, Clemson. They will be for this because simply, they have no choice. There is no other way to raise their revenue to keep up with the facilities, coaching investments, etc. that Arkansas, Ole Miss, etc., are able to pour money into with the SEC Network revenues. Getting out financed by Alabama or LSU is one thing. But Kentucky? Mississippi State? No way those collegiate blue bloods will put up with that.

Note that I did not put UT in that mix as they have all the revenue they need. Their key here is to go along with anything that doesn't impact their considerable income. I almost put ND in this group too but their once ground-breaking deal with NBC isn't the behemoth it once was.

Ultimately, I think Notre Dame will have to go this route as a natural progression of their path to date. Surely they want to keep their independence, but the brand simply isn't as strong as it once was, although it clearly is still strong. In fact, ND and UT are the two crown jewels that will make this super-conference worth the effort.

II - The  Heavies Who Leave

This group is more hypothetical as not all of these schools are guaranteed to move, but they are the ones most likely to.

First, the two most likely to go to the SEC: Virginia Tech and North Carolina State. As much as the SEC might love to get UNC instead, it seems unlikely that the SEC would absorb UNC and Duke and either add 2 more teams or not add Virginia Tech. Why? Because the states of Virginia and North Carolina are the targets for more television revenue. Adding more than the minimum necessary makes no sense. In fact, you can make an argument that the revenue difference in adding those two schools just to add those two states is somewhat marginal, but that would make this whole exercise moot and that is no fun, now is it? I have looked at a few different options on this, and I just can't see UNC joining the SEC - not with Duke and two other schools, and certainly not without Duke.

Second, the ones most likely to go to the B1G. This is in large part due to who the SEC doesn't want or can't make work: Georgia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia.  All four have been heavily rumored to be targeted by the B1G up until the whole ACC GOR deal was finalized.

Is it possible that Georgia Tech is something the Super-Conference fights over? Possibly, but based on past rumors, I don't get the sense that they will fight that hard. Georgia is a huge state in terms of eyeballs, but I don't see how the program itself is worth fighting over.

III - Others Who Might Leave

In this group, I have Kansas and Kansas State possibly going to the B1G. Personally, I think it unlikely, but if the new super conference doesn't want to go to 20 teams, this would be the solution. My sense is that it wouldn't bring enough value to the B1G for them to be interested, but I throw it out there as a possibility.

IV - The Remainderment

These are the schools that for one reason or another are along for the ride. They can't push their way forward, but if it means a larger network for ESPN, and more money for them, then they will sign off on it:

OSU, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, West Virginia, Iowa State, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Miami, Wake Forest, Boston College.

V - The Last Peice

This would put the new super-conference at either 17 or 19 teams, with no one in the NY/RI/CT area. Here is where I think you will see UConn added to round things out and put a relatively Power 5 sized program back in the Power 5.

What It Looks Like

SEC: Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, North Carolina State, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech

B1G: Duke, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ohio State, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UNC, Virginia, Wisconsin (and possibly Kansas and Kansas State)

Big XII/ACC Super-Conference: Baylor, Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Iowa State, Louisville, Miami, Notre Dame, OU, OSU, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, TCU, Texas Tech, UConn, UT, Wake Forest, West Virginia (and probably Kansas and Kansas State)

Bottom Line

If you were ESPN, would you pay B1G/SEC money for that new conference? Could it generate the eyeballs and advertizing dollars to at least get close? That is a larger footprint than either the B1G or SEC and would probably have more eyeballs and ratings...

I say ESPN because while Fox is a competitor and would love to fund a competitor to the SEC in the South, the LHN problem raises its ugly head again, as does the current contract with ESPN for the ACC.

Again, I am sure there are flaws in this. Where are they? What am I missing? What needs to be corrected?