If I am wrong, tell me, but I keep reading about how the A&M defense was the worst in the SEC last year as we prepare for tomorrow's game against Arkansas.
How in the wide wide world of sports is that at all relevant when we have the game against South Carolina to show us that this defense can be effective against a team that has a good offensive line and wants to run the ball?
Now, is Arkansas better than Carolina at running? Absolutely. But football like most sports is a dynamic game. Rarely is one aspect of a game so strong that it obliterates the relevance of other areas.
In this case, are people really thinking that a passing offense that has not been super efficient against lesser opponents (other than Auburn) is going to all of a sudden come to life? In my (albeit somewhat cursory) review of their games against Tech and NIU, I did not see things that made me think they can pull off consistent, penetrating play action against the TAMU defense even if Matthews or Raven or Watts is moved forward to help contain the run. Now, if I am wrong about that, it could be quite a game. But from what I have read and seen, I am relatively confident that won't be the case.
But even if that is true, it would take the Aggie offense sputtering for this not to turn into an oddball shootout where we are passing and they are running. Is it possible? Yes. But I haven't seen anything from the Arkansas defense to make me think they have the personnel to get a pass rush against our offensive line, or have the personnel to keep up with our vast array of receiver options. Frankly, this is where I think A&M has an advantage over almost every school in the FBS - wide receiver depth that is eight, nine, ten players deep. As one ESPN pundit said, "Every time I turn around, another new Aggie reviever has caught a pass for a touchdown." I mean, Niederhofer? NIEDERHOFER?
Honestly, I love the guy and what he represents. Loved the story on him earlier this week, too. But it makes a point that Sumlin and Co. can take a walk on and get him that productive. He has made some plays. Can he do it against a top 30 team like Arkansas? We will see, but he looked better than most of the SMU receivers who are scholarshipped.
I do think this part of what people are saying is accurate - the most efficient offense will win. I just look at match-ups and don't see how their average defense will stop our high octane offense more than our average (in places - in other places, not so much) defense will stop their powerful offense. Just penalties alone make me think that the Arkansas offense will hiccup enough for the Aggies to win.
That being said, this brings us back to the concern I had a few days ago. We are dangerous as long as we are running well. Was the composure we saw against Carolina just getting up for one big game, or is it something we can replicate? As we have seen with other programs just this season, consistency at a high level is rare and difficult to maintain, so I can see where we have a few of our own hiccups. Like RSJ's dropped pass, or the penalties, in the first quarter against SMU. We can afford that against the Ponies. Against the Hogs, that could change the complexion of the game.
But therein lies the advantage we have. An off game from Hill is unlikely - apparently his dad has really helped him have professional level composure. An off game from the OL is also unlikely. Depth will ensure that if one player is having a tough day, someone else will step up. Same for the running backs and receivers. We are four deep at running back. That is sick. We are now ten deep at wide receiver. That is absurd. A competitive performance atmosphere will ensure that the players on the field are focused, organized and effective. It really is magnificent.
On defense, we also have depth across the defensive line and good enough players at the next two levels that unless we have a complete Auburn 2013 meltdown, Snyder will find the right moment to stall enough of their drives to give A&M the victory.
Again, I have read as much as I can, and watched Arkansas' games. Where am I off here? Are the Hogs' wide receivers as good as Carolina's? (For what it is worth, I do think Allen is better than Thompson.) Or is Arkansas's defense better than I am giving them credit?
The more I look at it, though, the more I think I have it dialed in. Too many people have images of last year's defense in their head and don't recognize that Snyder not only has better players, he has depth, especially along the defensive line. Even after this defense made Carolina look below average (a Gamecocks team that went on to beat a pretty good East Carolina team and some team from Georgia...) on offense. I mean, the line last week on the SMU game was 32. It took us a HALF to get that margin. No, I don't think that Vegas has a handle on this club yet.
But like I said at the start, if I'm wrong, tell me.
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