Aggies v. Arkansas - specific matchups

I was able to watch the Arkansas-Northern Illinois game and had previously watched the Ark-TT and Ark-Auburn matches, so here are some quick hits on the various match-ups.

Razorback running game v. Aggie defense will be a challenge. No doubt there. This is the thing everyone is focusing on as it was such a huge challenge for the guys last year and will be a big challenge this year. But let's bear in mind that Carolina was supposed to have a great running game, even without Davis. How exactly did that work out again? Again, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth and the Aggie version of that is our offense. Any separation will force Arkansas to pass, which leads us to...

Razorback passing game v. Aggie defense will be at worst a draw.  Why? Their WRs are not good - certainly not as good as Carolina's. And while the Arkansas OL will probably do better than Carolina's, the overall advantage will still point to the TAMU sideline. Yes, Allen is a good quarterback, but if the WRs aren't running good routes (and they haven't) or making catches (they have at times, others not so much), you could have Peyton Manning back there and it wouldn't matter. If the Aggies can open up the game and get into their style of match, that is really going to hurt Arkansas' chances.

Arkansas return game v. Aggie kickoff and punt units. There is certainly danger here. Arkansas started the game v NIU with a return for a TD. TAMU has been good at coverage and their kickers have put the ball in the right spots, but they will need to continue to do so, otherwise they could open themselves up to a real problem.

Aggie return game v. Arkansas kickoff and punt units. Without Noil, the Aggies are good but not any more dangerous than Arkansas. These two areas are probably going to be a push.

Both teams are also good in kicking extra points and field goals.

Aggie passing game v. Razorback pass defense. There are some real absurdly bad numbers out there, especially on 3rd and short, for the Arkansas defense. It plays right into the strength of the Aggie offense. Unless there are some statistical anomalies here - which is possible - this is where TAMU is going to really hurt Arkansas' ability to get them off the field. Remember how the Aggies moved the ball methodically rather than vertically against Carolina? Like that, although I do expect Arkansas' defense to be possibly more effective than Carolina's was, although the TAMU passing game has only improved, including the addition of some vertical success.

Aggie running game v. Razorback defense. It is here, though, that the Aggies are the most under-appreciated. Between the play calling of Spavital and the effectiveness when they go to it, the TAMU running attack is lethal. I, for one, love seeing the team pass, pass, pass, ohh a run, pass, pass, pass, maybe another run, pass pass and the next thing you know, we are inside the 5 and we bring in the power running game or the option running game and a gassed defense has nothing left to really put into defending it, and it is church. I saw nothing from Arkansas in their games to indicate they can prevent this from happening.

I do think that when the Aggie play elite teams like Alabama and Auburn, and possibly LSU (at the end of the year, they will have worked out some things and could get back to elite level), Mississippi State (although I am not sure just yet) and Ole Miss (at least their defense is surely elite), this dynamic will change. But against good to lesser teams, they won't be able to handle the pressure that the offense puts them under. Like Coach Boone said, "Like Novocaine, give it time, it always works." And while Arkansas is clearly a good team, they are not an elite team.

Granted, the Arkansas running game is absolutely a punch in the mouth, one that we will need to see how the Aggies react to. But unless they lose their composure, TAMU will find a way to have their success on the offensive side of the ball and the defense needs to just make a handful of stops. Here is where I trust Mark Snyder. He has time and again - especially at Alabama in 2012, and a handful of times last year (including against Arkansas) found a way to win the chess match at a key point. I loved how we won the Duke game with defense there at the end, for example. And I have loved seeing what Snyder can do with a real set of players on defense this year, and am giddy about the idea of adding to that for next year and beyond.

So looking beyond this game, I do see where the Aggies might be challenged by a better defense (Ole Miss, Alabama, maybe Mississippi State, LSU, Missouri) or an equally good offense (have you seen what Alabama is doing?, Auburn, Missouri) and that will determine how far our team can go. But for this game, no matter how hard Arkansas hits the Aggies in the mouth with the running game, it is only one area, and in the other areas, the Razorbacks are just too deficient. I have the Aggies winning 45-31 after it being close in the first quarter and a half.