Monday, September 22, 2014

As we start SEC play again, some concerns

As I wrote in my Game Grades, I have a very big concern that came from the game on Saturday. I also have some others in general for this team. I doubt I am bringing up anything the team isn't working on, and I have faith that they will address them, but let me share.

Saturday - that start to the game was unsettling. Over-hyped to play SMU? We have to be more professional than that. In fact, a lot of people were giving us a lot of credit for the South Carolina win because we weren't too hyped up - we were focused, prepared and locked in. On Saturday, we were anything but. Color me not a fan.

On top of the penalties, we just didn't start well, and that is something this team cannot afford. That first drive touchdown is something that really sets a tone for the teams, and is a huge part of Sumlin's success over the years. We *HAVE* to maintain that, and we weren't able to against SMU? Now I will give SMU some credit - it appeared they came out well prepared and were firing at full speed, but do you really think Arkansas is not going to do that, with better athletes?

As far as conference play, I do think that any team we can get ahead of, we should be able to beat. And the defenses that I see being able to really match us hat for hat is Alabama and Ole Miss. Auburn is the lone exception because their offense is the one unit that I think can go toe to toe with us. ASSUMING WE PLAY OUR BEST. Again, a start like SMU and we are in a deep hole against a few other teams. After Saturday's game in Death Valley, I have to put State in the conversation as well. My sense is that LSU made some mistakes that gave them belief, and they aren't what they have been over the past few years (too many exits for the NFL over too many years has, I think, finally caught up with them), so I am not sure that Mississippi State just beat THAT LSU squad, but they certainly showed they have a competitive defense and a good offense. And we don't know a lot about Arkansas' defense other than they got blown out by Auburn in the first week and they have been good against average to below average teams since.

I am worried about teams that can really run the ball, including Arkansas. In the traditional race of offensive styles, the ability to run the ball has been one to counteract a high powered passing game, and if anyone can do it in the SEC, right now it is Arkansas (and Alabama). Again, why scoring first is so important as it will force them to pass the ball. For what it is worth, I felt that the LSU game last year really drove home for me that the way we play offense is as much about defense as it is about our own offense. Scoring like crazy allows a less skilled defense to simplify the playbook and get after certain areas. It is why when we couldn't move the ball against LSU last year, we were in big trouble. I can see that happening against Arkansas, Ole Miss, State, Alabama, Auburn and possibly LSU and even Mizzou if they get their young guys coached up enough.

That is pretty much all of our remaining games. Fun!

But that is the thing, now we are in a challenge every week, and this team relishes a challenge, and I think Sumlin and the staff has worked hard to get them ready for that gauntlet. It is one of the things that I really respect from this team - the old adage about the team never quitting has never been more true than with this club. You don't go 12-2 on the road in the SEC without the ability to consistently bring your A game - and as we saw the last two weeks, that is a very difficult thing to do in college football (looking at you, Southern Cal, and Mizzou, and Virginia Tech and Georgia).

So yes, I am very excited about the rest of this season. Lots of talent - although not as much as we will have next year, or the year after - and the confidence that they have the tools to be the better team in every game they play. Frankly, I think the schedule works out really well for us - we are getting the three middle teams right now, where we can show that we can out-talent them. Those games can prepare us for our two toughest games against Alabama and Auburn on the road. Then we finish with teams that, if we make it through these next five, should be games we can win. Oh yes, it is all in front of us now.

I leave you with this - the next two games will determine whether this team really is in the top third of the SEC. Arkansas will be a great test, and Mississippi State on the road will tell us if we still area ahead of the middle of the pack teams. Beat State on the road, and we should be able to beat Ole Miss at home. Should be fun!

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