Coming into the year, a lot of people looked at the Aggie schedule and was very high on how it set up for TAMU. And certainly, the number of home games and home games against key opponents sure looked like the table was set for success.
Now we all know that a schedule means little in college football when so many unknowns litter the landscape. And as we have seen, many preconcieved notions about the SEC West in 2015 have proven false.
Arkansas? Not a dark horse to win the league. Auburn? Not a national championship contender. Alabama? Can't just reload - some of their talent actually needs to learn how to play together.
As for our Aggies, John Chavis really can work miracles. Holy hand grenades, Batman, has he turned what was a poor unit last year into one that can really beat up on teams, and while the offense still needs to develop, especially in terms of a vertical passing game, they have successfully developed a real running game.
So let's look at the schedule now that we know more about most teams.
First, Arkansas this weekend. Considering the talent gap, it really comes down to execution by the Aggies. If the coaches and team leadership can get A&M to play at a high level, the win should be theirs. But there are a number of things to watch out for as we wrote earlier.
Mississippi State
Then the Aggies host Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are coming off a very successful season based on a senior heavy team. The problem with teams like that is seniors graduate and there are a lot of questions about how good this team will be. The only real result we have to look at for them this season is their home loss to LSU - a team that has played above expectations early.
So how good is this Bulldog side? We will probably know more after this weekend as they play fellow early-season-disappointment Auburn in what has to be considered an elimination game. It will be the second conference loss in two games for whoever does not win with games against powerhouses Ole Miss, Alabama remaining on the schedule.
Initially, I had this as the most winnable SEC West game for the Ags. Now I think the Arkansas game takes that slot with this game probably at the same level or possibly a bit tougher if they can find a way to beat Auburn. Obviously, we will have to see how both State and our Aggies play, but considering their personnel losses, and that it is the first SEC game at New Kyle, it would take either a monumental step up from the Bulldogs or a real dip in form for this to be a loss. Again, the asterisk is still there until we see how they play, because LSU could be a lot better than expected....
Alabama
Oh boy, this one could be interesting. If the Aggies have matured the way they probably should, then odds are you have them coming into this game undefeated. Bama could very well come into this game on 2 losses as they have already lost to Ole Miss and have to travel to Georgia. On top of that, they have to play Arkansas at home while the Aggies have a bye.
The table could not be set any better for A&M to get their first home win against the Crimson Tide at Kyle Field in SEC play. Then again, Alabama is still extremely more talented and by the time they face the Aggies, they will have been through more games and had an opportunity to see which players were settling out and which ones needed to be replaced.
This is still going to be a very tough game, but it certainly seems like the window is cracked a touch more than it was coming into the season. Both teams have some big games between now and then, so we will know more as we get closer, but suffice to say, I am super excited about seeing how this team would fare playing against a one-loss Tide team with a chance to stay undefeated.
At Ole Miss
No real change here. If anything, this game has gotten tougher as Mississippi now has the confidence of having beaten Alabama on the road, and we know what that does to a team.
The challenge for the Aggies is that Ole Miss does not have a real challenge between now and then. They host Vandy this weekend, then go to Florida the following week. That might require some effort, but it isn't like having to go to Death Valley or Tuscaloosa. Then they host New Mexico State before traveling to Memphis the weekend before the game against A&M.
Barring injuries, the Aggies are really going to have to elevate their play to take a win in this game.
South Carolina
Trap game. No other way to put it. The Gamecocks' season is going in the toilet and will likely be a lost cause by the time they come to Kyle Field. With what happened last year, this is definitely a game they might get up for and the Ol Ball Coach has been known to pull out an upset or two. No matter the record the team comes into this game with, it will be a natural let down from having prepared to play the Tide and Ole Miss.
This is a game that should not be a challenge on paper. This is a game that is all about mental preparation and execution, especially with Auburn up next. If the Aggies get caught looking forward to War Eagle, it could cost them.
Auburn
Who knows where Auburn will be when this game happens. Already, they are wheels-off and starting a redshirt freshman at quarterback and their defense just pulled an Aggies at Bama circa 2014 in their game against LSU.
This is another place where the schedule helps the Aggies as War Eagle will have to play Ole Miss the week before they come to Kyle Field. Even if they survive their game against Mississippi State and games at Kentucky and Arkansas, that Ole Miss game will be a physical test. In fact, the back to back to back of Arkansas, Ole Miss and the Aggies will make it very difficult for what has already proven to be a thin roster to survive.
That being said, these Tigers certainly have the talent if their coaching and team leadership can get their act together. And like South Carolina, this is a revenge game for the opponent.
Western Carolina
Surely this game should not be a question, but rather a chance to rest some nicks and cuts, bumps and bruises, but this team is still very very young (three leading tacklers are sophomores) and so staying focused is going to be important.
Here is where the let downs against Ball State and Nevada make me a little nervous....
At Vanderbilt
This is a road game in the SEC, so it should not be taken lightly, but if there is a team in the SEC that is falling behind the pack, it is the Commodores. This game is sandwiched between games against Kentucky and at Tennessee, so probably not one that Vandy will be super excited for.
It also sounds like there might be a decent traveling contingent. This is another focus game where it is going to be important for the coaches and team leaders to keep everyone on target.
At Louisiana State University
Oh, the game this could turn out to be. The great news for the Aggies is that unlike the A&M schedule, LSU comes into this game having had to play Ole Miss on the road. Yes, the Aggies have to travel as well, but it is to Vanderbilt after a game against Western Carolina, whereas the Bayou Bengals will have to face Arkansas then travel to Ole Miss before hosting the Aggies, interestingly similar to Auburn.
Like the Aggies, we simply don't know enough about LSU to really forecast this game well. What we do know is their defense has not taken any sort of step back, which is not really a surprise although I am sure some hoped the loss of Chavis might slow their roll a bit. Unluckily for the Ags, at least for this season, that does not appear to be happening. They also have a monster running game.
The question is whether a high-powered, hurry up offense can force them out of their game plan as we certainly have not seen them be able to pass very well. The great thing is the Ole Miss game the week before ought to give us a good barometer of where their current weaknesses might be.
Overall
The bottom line here is that this is still a very young team that is figuring out what works best for them. That "figuring out" makes me nervous against Arkansas and Mississippi State, but I think it is a good bet that Sumlin and Co. find a way to get those victories. That leaves the Alabama game as the first real chance for a loss, and at this point, it is a huge unknown. The Ole Miss game after that is likely a loss unless some real magic is happening in College Station.
After that pair, that could be 1 or 2 losses, the Aggies then need to avoid let downs to keep winning before the game in Louisiana.
Barring a real collapse, this team should end up somewhere between 8-4 and 10-2, which is a moderate improvement on last year, but more importantly, for a sophomore heavy team, is a great foundation for the next two seasons.
My educated guess at this point has the Aggies losing to Ole Miss and probably Louisiana State and one other game - either Alabama or a trap game - for a 9-3 season.
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