Both teams are starting off their SEC play and neither team wants to start with a loss. Motivation is not going to be an issue, certainly not for the Razorbacks. With two losses on the season already, Arkansas is that cornered animal. The Aggies are going to get their best on Saturday.
The thing is, in terms of overall talent, the Aggies should have the edge, and overall they are playing better. But the desperation from the Razorbacks makes them dangerous. Also, schematically there might be some issues.
So let's dive in. First, the Razorbacks have been good with their coverage teams. Considering the level of opponents they have faced, that may not be much of a test but overall, we can't expect them to be poor here. Opposing them is one of the best return units in the SEC. While we should expect A&M to have some success here, I don't think we can count on it being like it was against Arizona State, etc.
On the other hand, their return teams have not been spectacular. With the Aggies' kicking game on solid footing, odds are that at the very least, A&M should be able to slowly improve their field position as the game goes along.
When The Aggies Run
This has been a place where A&M has not been successful since a certain Heisman Trophy winner left - frankly, in large part because he was so good at running the ball. This year has seen the team make a more concerted effort to develop this part of their game, with some obvious success.
The Razorbacks lost a lot of players from their solid defense from last season, and it has shown, although none of their opponents have had the kind of running game that A&M has (which is kind of awkward to say). There is a good chance that A&M's success this year has been because it has been against inferior teams. This is an area to watch.
That being said, part of the Aggies' success has been from the QB position, and Tech was able to run their quarterback well for key plays, so that is a breakdown to look for. If Kyle Allen can make those short 5-10 yard runs to get the 1st down to keep drives alive, this could be a long day for Arkansas.
When the Aggies Pass
Tech did a phenomenal job of getting skill players in space, but that is in large part what their offense is based on. The Aggies certainly have that as a part of their game, but they have not excelled at it since the end of the 2013 season. Even this season against inferior teams, they have not consistently been able to hurt opponents. On the other hand, considering how slow the Razorbacks are on defense, it is very possible that this is where the Aggies can open up the playbook and make Arkansas pay for their limitations. Certainly, players like Kirk and Noil will be worries for the Razorbacks all game.
A key to watch here is A&M's ability to pass protect and design plays to free Allen from the pass rush. Spavital spoke this week about how they had worked on the running game through the Nevada game and that he expected the pass protection to improve now that they had made progress on the running game. If they can keep Allen's jersey clean, he will likely find enough targets in space to really hurt Arkansas.
Considering that the Razorbacks were unable to pressure Texas Tech much certainly ought to give the offense reason for confidence.
When Arkansas Runs
This is part of the Razorback game that should worry the Aggies. not so much because they have had great success this season, but more that they have traditionaly been good at it, return much of their offenseive line that was so successful last season, and have progressed in this phase of the game as the season progressed.
Frankly, it has been a tough season for Arkansas here - the loss of Jonathan Williams before the season started was huge. Add into that the fact that new coordinator Dan Enos was brought in to develop the passing game and started the season with a pass-heavy focus and you have a team leaning the wrong way to start with. Add in the fact that Alex Collins was not fully healthy going into the Toledo game and you basically have a team handicapped in their major strength.
But for large swaths of the Tech game, Arkansas was able to run the ball at will - for large chunks. And this is up against what has been an issue for the Aggies in past seasons. And even this season, they have given up some long runs, especially early in the Ball State game.
That being said, the Aggies DL is solid and the defense as a whole may have made a mistake or two here or there, but they have not continued to make them (another huge improvement with Chavis joining the staff). This is going to be a very good challenge for the linebacking unit. The good news for the Ags here is that this unit got close to fully staffed for the Nevada game and now most of those players have gotten reps. They are as healthy as they ever have been for the first big challenge.
When Arkansas Passes
This is another area that the Aggies ought to have an advantage. The Razorbacks simply are not ready for the speed and skill of this defensive line, and they could very possibly overwhelm them. The Razorback offensive line is massive, but not necessarily quick. And Brandon Allen did not look at all comfortable scrambling against Tech.
Add into that the fact that the Razorbacks have lost a number of wide receivers in their three games this season, and Arkansas did not have a lot of talent at the position to begin with. Throw in the fact that Allen has not been phenomenal in the passing game this season and you have a recepie for a bad matchup.
The trick, though, is play action. If Arkansas can establish a solid running game and get ahead or stay even, play action is going to be a concern. Allen made a number of solid passes from this against Tech.
Overall
So the bottom line is that, if Sumlin and the coaching staff and team leaders can keep this team focused and aggressive, the talent and scheme advantages should lead A&M to the win. The Aggies simply have too many playmakers on both sides of the ball.
But it is entirely possible that Arkansas will play their best game of the season to date - in large part because they need to - and keep things competitive for much if not all of the game, and it is going to take those playmakers to win the game.
Personally, I have faith that between that brain trust and the experience this team went through last season, they will not come into this game soft but rather will play their own best game of the season to get the win. But as a good friend of mine reminded me today, we are talking about a major sporting event based on the minds of 18-20 year old college kids.....
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