Aggies v Razorbacks - more unit v unit evaluation

So after reading through the various takes on the game this weekend, we have a few more thoughts on certain match-ups and the game as a whole. Most of them favor the Aggies, but do not underestimate a few things.

Let's talk in a little more specificity than we did in our earlier piece (HERE) about certain match-ups. Don't miss our other articles about the first look at Arkansas v A&M, as well as Importance of the Nevada Game.

Aggie DL v Arkansas OL

When the Arkansas massive OL is in pass protection, they have yet to give up a sack this season. That changes Saturday as that is due in large part to their opposition. The Aggie DL, unlike their previous challengers, is just too good, too fast, and strong enough in enough places to not pressure Allen some and nick him a few times. At least once they will get the sack.

This is good for A&M because it puts more pressure on their running game to be perfect, and very few running games are perfect.

In run blocking, their OL will be effective, but if the A&M linebackers and secondary stay disciplined, the defense will eventually force mistakes, getting the ball back into the hands of the offense.

This is a great challenge for this unit as they have given up a few big plays in the running game by not staying disciplined, and if they rise to it, it will be a fantastic growth moment for the team as a whole.

Aggie LBs, Secondary v. Arkansas RBs, TEs, WRs

This is the game - period, paragraph. The back half of the A&M defense will need to do their job to contain the Razorback offense and force them to make the mistakes that kill drives and cost teams scores. Frankly, with the Sun Devil OL so terrible, this will be the first real test of Chavis' system. Has it simplified the game enough that his limited talent options at certain positions (CB, to a degree LB) can be aggressive yet not lose containment?

If the answer is yes, then this game should be a blowout barring abject failure from the offense. Considering that the Texas Tech defense - which is not as talented as the Aggie unit - kept Alex Collins from breaking long runs and kept the Arkansas receivers in front of them, you would think that Chavis' players can do the same.

In that case, Arkansas might score some, but probably not more than 21-24 points, and that should be more than enough for the TAMU offense to eclipse.

Aggie OL v. Arkansas DL

Simply put, the Arkansas defense as a whole is not what it was last year, and that includes the DL. On the other hand, the Aggie OL has not been good in pass protection, so this might be a bit of a push.

In the running game, it probably is an advantage of the Aggies as they have worked well to run the ball this season. It is in the passing game that there is some worry for Sumlin's crew. Spavital spoke this week about how the team had been working on establishing a running game in the first three matches and that they expect improvement in pass protection, but this is a big step up from what they had been facing the first 3 weeks.

But whether it is the OL being more successful or it is rollouts and other designed plays to keep the rush from the quarterback, the key on offense will be to getting the QB time to make plays. Do this, and the clear advantage A&M will have will break the game open.

Aggie RBs, TEs, WRs v. Arkansas LBs, Secondary

It is here that A&M has the clearest advantage, and with the way Tech had their way with the Razorbacks last week, you have to think this is where the game turns into a blowout. Arkansas really struggled last week with skill players on the perimeter, but Tech has no one like Christian Kirk or Speedy Noil.

This is why the trick for the Aggie offense is making sure Allen or Murray have time to make good decisions and not make mistakes. If the offense can be effective at getting the ball into the hands of their skill players on a consistent basis, the scoring may never stop.

The Concerns

So that is a lot of stuff on paper. On film. In other words, not this day, these opponents, these referees (and it sure seems like Arkansas has gotten some tough calls of late). Any given Saturday and all that.

My biggest concern - because of the impact it would have on the game, not the likelihood of it happening - is coming out flat. There is zero chance Arkansas comes out flat as their backs are against the wall. If this young team comes into the game with an air of "we bad" like they did last year, this more desperate Arkansas team could really put a scare into the game and possibly steal it. With the OL struggling in pass protection, a hurried interception or a sack and a fumble is entirely possible. That is how the script gets flipped.

Another concern is the Aggies running the ball, but not being able to take advantage of it - either because the QB doesn't have time to make plays or WRs are dropping the ball. Or, possibly, slowing the game down via the run enough that Arkansas can stay close. I do expect the Aggies to run the ball successfully. But if they don't pressure the back half of the Arkansas D until it is too late, the pucker factor may not work in the Ags favor.

The Bottom Line

Frankly, though, those are just things to look out for, not things I expect. I expect Texas A&M to be ready for this game. Between last year's experience, this years team leadership and John Chavis (anyone want to play flat under that guy? Me neither), the Aggies will come out ready to play and prove themselves. In fact, I expect them to be pretty hungry to prove themselves in SEC play. Surely some sense the opportunity there with Auburn and Arkansas struggling. Put Arkansas into major difficulty with a loss in this game, and you can pretty much scratch them off the list of concerns. Whoever loses the Auburn-Mississippi State game will also be out of the running. So with one victory, the Aggies can move past at least two teams with a chance to move past a third the following week.

As for the game itself, I expect Arkansas to run the ball and keep things close for a half. I expect the Aggie offense to be moderately effective - enough to take a lead but not really stretch the game. It could even be tied at half. But unless Spav or the quarterback has a horrible day, the Arkansas defense will eventually buckle under the pressure and A&M will break away. Arkansas simply does not have enough strengths in enough places. In fact, this is a great example of how the Sumlin-Chavis system will separate A&M from the middle of the pack in the SEC.