So after all that, what does it mean?
Generally, it means a very young team from last year comes in with things to learn and the talent and ability to grow, although it seems the SEC West is only getting tougher by the year.
And yet, that is what we signed up for, wasn't it? When we left the Big 12, it was because we wanted to raise our game, and this is the year. This is the year that we really get to dig our hands into being fully SEC. True, there probably are a handful of players on the roster who were originally recruited to play in the Big 12, but the vast majority of the roster are here because they wanted to play for Kevin Sumlin and the Aggies in the SEC.
With the new digs, its almost as if this is the first full year in the SEC with the team having all its assets organized and together. Certainly we finally have an SEC level defensive coordinator. And we also have three years of experience to show that yes, we absolutely can make noise in this conference. There are some rather large skins on the wall, including Alabama ('12), Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl), Auburn ('14), South Carolina ('14), along with some memorable games - some wins (Ole Miss in '12 and '13) and some losses (Auburn and Alabama in '13).
Yessir, you know you better bring it when you play the Aggies in the SEC.
Unfortunately, there have been enough losses - looking at you, LSU and Missouri, as well as that loss to Alabama last year - that clearly, the Aggies have work to do.
Sumlin Has The Pieces
Yet this is the exciting part. This is where you can look at Kevin Sumlin and say, "You have what you need. You do not lack for anything - not players, not coaches, not facilities. Go forth and destroy." And say it with the confidence that it is entirely possible.
The reality, though, is that we know that is the potential of the team. Now also begins the hard work of maximizing it. In fact, Sumlin and his staff have been working to maximize it since 2012 - they just got thrown a curve ball in the shape of Johnny Football, who was a magic elixir that gave all of college football a taste of what Aggie Football can be.
Last year we saw that the elixir helped mask some real holes, yet the Aggies revealed that the heart that beats at the center of this team is just as strong without Mr. Manziel. Certainly South Carolina and Auburn will not be taking TAMU lightly any time soon.
The Breakdown Begins
So let's get down to specifics. After looking at all the pieces, I think we know for a fact that the offense will be at least as good as it was in the back half of 2014, and that should be good enough to win five games as is. All of the non-conference games but Arizona State, as well as the Vanderbilt game and, in this writer's opinion, the home game against a weaker Mississippi State team.
To equal 2014, which ought to be the minimum for this team, we need to find two more regular season wins. Enter John Chavis. With a simplified, and better coached defense, that side of the ball should make enough of an improvement that beating South Carolina should be doable. That gets us to six. How many more?
The next tier of games, in our opinion, include Arkansas and Arizona State. With the changes to the scheme, the Sun Devils may be surprised by what a Chavis-led Aggie defense can do. And if Chavis can do something really special, like get this team to be able to stop the run, it is also possible that a win against Arkansas can be had.
The Key To The Season
But the ceiling of this team will be defined by David Christensen. His work with the offensive line and the running game is the difference between Texas A&M being in the middle of the pack in the SEC West and having a shot to take down the big boys in the group - Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss and LSU. And while LSU and Ole Miss may or may not deserve to be in that group after their tailspins at the end of last season, both games are on the road. And to win those game, this team is going to need to be able to do things it has not done against LSU in the past - run the ball traditionally.
Frankly, I think both Chavis and Christensen will have an impact this season - a noticeable one that will show that this coaching staff, with these players and these facilities, in front of these fans, are going to be a force to be dealt with. I think it is a coin flip whether they beat the Sun Devils or not, but I think they get wins against the original five mentioned above and South Carolina.
Its All About The Razorbacks
And I really think this season comes down to the Arkansas game. If this team is ready to win that game that early in the season, they will continue to improve enough that another win or two is very possible, and even nine or ten wins is possible. Lose that game, and I think this team could struggle to get that seventh win.
Make no mistake, the win against Arkansas last year was an aberration. Play them again later in the year and that is almost certainly a loss. And while they are losing some on defense, they are not losing much on offense and that offense can destroy teams.
It is going to take Chavis really getting the Aggies able to stop the run, and Spav being able to really pressure the weaknesses of the defense for us to beat the Razorbacks in 2015. But both of those things are very possible, especially if Christensen does good work with the offensive line and the running game.
Something Special Is Possible
Is magic in a bottle possible again? Absolutely. Chavis has some real athletes to work with, and if enough of them are tired of being talked about as they have been for the past few years, and he can get them in a scheme that plays to their strengths in ways that opponents cannot adjust for in time, all of a sudden only the Auburn and Alabama matches seem a bridge too far.
Or what if either Murray or Allen really turn it on? Allen will be in his second season and ought to have the confidence of the wide receiver corps. And if that unit can get back to being great - i.e., no drops at bad times, block well for the running game, everyone playing on every down - then he alone could be amazing. Or what if Kyler is another Johnny Football, especially in the ability to get that third down when everything falls apart?
Or even if you just have the emergence of a real running game that opponents have to respect, on top of Sumlin's air raid offense?
The potential is definitely there. But in a fit of honesty, I have to admit it does not seem very likely - this year. But mark this down - in 2017 the Aggies will once again have an advantage in home games like they do this year, and it will be Chavis' third year with the team, and he will have helped recruit defensive players for three years. Magic will very likely happen - just probably not this year.
Bottom Line
So bottom line? I think they lose to the Sun Devils but beat Arkansas, as well as the other non-conference games and South Carolina, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. I also think they get one or two more. Without knowing more about how Alabama will shake out (they have a LOT of new faces to get ready to play), or how Auburn's changes will work, or what the loss to TCU did to Ole Miss, it is tough to pick which one they nick. But they will, and I think there is a chance they finally beat LSU. Yes, its on the road. Yes, one of their quarterbacks might actually learn how to play. But I am sure Chavis will feel pressure to have his defense ready to win this one for him, and unless the Bayou Tigers are having the season of their lives, the Aggies will find a way to win in Death Valley.
Optimistic? Maybe. But it all comes down to the fact that this team has had the potential to be great from Day One of Sumlin's tenure, and the coaching changes he made just scream improvement, and this team was not as bad as the record indicated last year. A play or two here or there and we beat LSU. Get ahead of the Kenny Hill issues and maybe the Mississippi State game is a victory. The point is, though, that other than the Alabama match, this team was good last year. And now you add in the best defensive coordinator in the SEC and a head-coach level offensive line coach? That has got to have an effect, and it is not as if this team doesn't have talent.
So there you have it. The key game is Arkansas, and if they win that game, look for this team to do something good this year as the foundation for something really special in the years to come.
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